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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (62557)	9/25/2019 7:12:55 AM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Recommended By Jurgis Bekepuris Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78686

Re GN - why do you think the Graham Numbers adds value (in terms of a valuation metric) when it contains the book value as a multiplier which by itself has been found to be mostly worthless (outside banking and insurance) for the most part? Its more like a theoretical related not related to VFF. I can see why one used LE or EV/EBIT or even EV/ EBITDA as valuation heuristics, but if you multiply something with a numbers that had been found to be worthless, then the result will most likely worthless too. I used to look at book value, but outside of Insurance or banks, I think this number is worthless. Or do you use it as an heuristic for replacement value? It can be , but in most cases it’s a pretty lousy one.

To: E_K_S who wrote (62557)	9/25/2019 11:20:35 AM
From: Anne Kourtidis	2 Recommendations Recommended By E_K_S Spekulatius Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78686

E_K_S, Thanks for the suggestion to look into Village Farms. Here are my thoughts: There were two things I liked: cash had been increasing since 2015, and simultaneously debt had been decreasing. Also liked the fact that sales were increasing steadily. But something happened in 2018. I’m still in the process of figuring out what caused that slump. Unfortunately, there were a lot of things I didn’t like. OCF falls off a cliff in 2017 and 2018, looks like that’s due primarily to changes in inventory increases in 2018 (by $5,180) and receivable increases (by $2,593) in 2017. Plenty of YOY swings, looks like they’re not managing their working capital too well. Earnings are pretty clumpy. In 2016, they get a bump from a revaluation of land. That’s an unsustainable increase of $6,132. In 2018, it’s the JV, which inflates earnings (though not cash flows). For me, JV’s are a double-edged sword, they’re an added bonus, but they’re not part of the core operations of a business. It’s not something to be relied on for income. Looking at the balance sheet, it appears that they don’t have too much debt, but… When you look at annual maturities, I see a looming liquidity risk. In 2021, they’re going to get hit with $28,551K worth. If cash flows were stable, and they didn’t have to issue a ton of common stock (like they did in 2018: $23,492K), then I wouldn’t worry as much. Also, note about issuance, that dilutes the shareholder’s piece of the pie. From their earnings calls, management is looking to do too many things, but don't have a secure capital base. They are in the process of expanding their facilities at Delta 3, launching a new brand (heavy R&D investment), and looking to launch retail sales. At the same time, their assets are caught up as collateral: 1. FCC loan - pledged promissory notes, first mortgage on VFF owned greenhouse ($114,554) 2. Operating Loan -promissory notes, accounts receivable and inventory ($38,007) For a company with all of the above, I see 11x PE as expensive. Think I’ll pass on this one, but appreciate that this got me to do some digging. Anne K.

To: E_K_S who wrote (62557)	9/25/2019 5:39:32 PM
From: Lazarus	Respond to of 78686

RE: Pot stocks. Have you looked at MMNFF? No earning yet but check out the revenues. In today at $1.55 website

To: E_K_S who wrote (62557)	9/26/2019 9:14:28 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78686

ConAgra Foods +4% post Q1 results Sep. 26, 2019 7:39 AM ET\|About: Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG)\|By: Niloofer Shaikh, SA News Editor ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) reports net sales growth of 30.3% in Q1, driven primarily by 35.8% increase from the acquisition of Pinnacle. Organic net sales decreased 1.7%, driven by a 2.5% volume decline behind unplanned softness in the International and Foodservice segments as well as planned elasticity-driven declines in the Grocery & Snacks segment. Segment net sales: Grocery & Snacks: $978M (+26.9%); Refrigerated & Frozen: $959M (+51%); International: $204M (+5.5%); Foodservice: $250M (+6.3%). Adjusted gross margin rate slipped 29 bps to 28.3%. FY2020 Guidance: Organic net sales: +1% to +1.5%; Net sales: +13.5% to +14%; Adjusted operating margin rate: 16.2% to 16.8%; Adjusted net interest expense: ~$505M; Average diluted shares: ~488M; Adjusted diluted EPS: $2.08 to $2.18; Tax rate: 24% to 25%; Free cash flow: ~$1B. CAG +4.01% premarket -------------------------------------------------------------- Same organic growth as BGS. Still nice report by CAG showing food segment may have bottomed... reversion to mean play

To: E_K_S who wrote (62557)	10/4/2019 8:58:28 AM
From: E_K_S	Respond to of 78686

Village Farms JV begins cannabis products shipping Village Farms International (NASDAQ: VFF) says its cannabis joint venture has begun shipping branded, packaged dried cannabis products to the British Columbia Liquor Distribution Branch.The BCLDB acts as the provincial wholesaler of non-medical cannabis, supplying licensed private retailers and the government-run online store and stand-alone BC Cannabis Stores.Village Farms's 50%-owned JV (Pure Sunfarms) expects its first products to soon be available to retail customers in British Columbia.Pure Sunfarms continues to advance discussions with other provincial distributors for potential supply agreements to further expand its presence in the Canadian cannabis market. -------------------------------- See how much value this brings to the stock as this is one of the only companies that have real earnings (not all from pot). EKS