Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kimberley who wrote (7612)

9/26/2019 1:32:27 PM

From: Kirk ©

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
kimberley

Respond to of 26687

I'll reply to your email next....

This is more great news digitimes.com

TSMC leading-edge fab investments set stage for sale surge in 2H19

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's heavy investments in advanced wafer-fab technology are set to pay off significantly for the world's largest silicon foundry as it continues the production ramp of 7nm ICs in the second half of this year, according to IC Insights.

TSMC is expected to see its revenues in the second half of 2019 jump 32% from the first half - more than three times the 10% growth rate expected for the entire IC industry during the same period, IC Insights said. "There is little doubt that 7nm application processors for new smartphones from Apple and Huawei are driving the forecast for a strong second-half rebound in TSMC's sales," the research firm indicated.

Illustrating how dominant TSMC is in the leading-edge pure-play foundry market, the company is expected to have over 7x the dollar volume sales at sub-40nm processes as compared to the combined 2019 total of Globalfoundries, UMC, and SMIC (US$22.9 billion versus US$3.2 billion), IC Insights said.

SMIC entered initial production of 28nm technology in the fourth quarter of 2015, more than three years after TSMC began fabricating wafers with its 28nm process. SMIC expects to log recognizable revenue from its new 14nm FinFET technology sometime in the fourth quarter of 2019, once again about three years behind TSMC's introduction of similar processes, IC Insights noted.

In 2019, TSMC is expected to have 66% of its sales come from sub-40nm technology, IC Insights said. Moreover, IC Insights forecast that TSMC will have US$8.9 billion in 7nm revenue this year, representing about 26% of its total sales in 2019 and 33% of its fourth-quarter revenues.

The pace at which TSMC's customers adopt leading-edge process technologies has quickened, IC Insights said. It took eight quarters for the foundry's 40-45nm technology to secure greater than 20% of its total sales, five quarters for its 28nm process to exceed that threshold, and only three quarters for its 7nm process to account for more than 20% of its quarterly revenue.

TSMC's 20nm, 14nm and 10nm technologies all surpassed 20% of its total sales within three quarters. TSMC also believes that its ramp of 5nm technology, as a percent of its sales, will be even faster than its 7nm process, IC Insights noted. Strong demand for the advanced nodes has resulted in tight supply and longer lead times. As a result, TSMC is already planning to set aside more funds to expand capacity for its advanced processes.

To: kimberley who wrote (7612)	9/26/2019 2:19:15 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By kimberley Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26687

HI Kim, The best value that is very depressed now (from a huge Acquisition of their last competitor XCERRA) is Cohu. Lots of my lonely posts on this activity here: Subject 3070 My other one is a semi equipment company that has transferred their robotic skills to a new destructive and enabling line of equipment within the life sciences sector ( biosampling and gene sequencing - very fast growth with both business sectors in the 40% margin area BRKS : Message 32306872 IMHO both will be doubles in a year - especially Cohu. Last year at the end of July they traded at 27 ish. The acquisition is creating a lot of relocation and severance expense. They say that twice the expected 20 million in savings (40 million) will have been accomplished by the start of Q1 2020. They are experts at running lean. They had to take out 350 million to buy the bigger company with bigger margins and greater cash, but got it done. Now they need to get leaned out before the market demand picks up. From 1978 to last year they never had a penny of debt - very conservative and solid management. I've visited them many time and have known all the CEO's since 1990's. They treat the company's money like it was their family's I love that!! For them to have embraced debt to get the merger done was huge commitment - that shows to me how great the future opportunity will be - even if delayed by trade tariff wars - who saw it coming? A Chinese hedge fund , backed by the Government's money was to buy Xcerra and the cifius committe put the kabash on the deal - enter Cohu step up and double their revenue, but with big initial expenses to be incurred. Cohu has been acquisitive for decades and paid cash only till this acquisition. This rolls up the global semiconductor test business for them - huge future. Much smaller but not unlike the Amat/Varian merger, Kla Tencor merger and the Lam/ Novellus merger. They have achieved true global scale with this acquisition. They pay a 6 cent quarterly dividend and I'm sure that will not increase as long as they have that debt to pay off. Hope you find this interesting and profitable. The big cap leaders are : AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, and to a lesser degree TER. Bob Also a semi turn down in hand phones and trade wars has deferred a stronger demand in the H2 of this year into next year. Hopefully Q 4 will have better guidance, but right now there is excess capacity of about 5% - which defers Capex. Cohu's largest equipment installed base is in China. So they have big excess capacity. If new equipment is installed outside of China - it will make for good business. They manufacture their products in Malaysia and the Phillipines, with R&D in Poway Ca. I've been in and out of them completely 3 times starting back in 1978. It currently is my largest position and I've been adding all this year as dividends accumulate. You'll need to get an appointment to post - it is really quiet. I've run everybody but the hardest of heads off - sigh. Please drop by! Bob