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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the longhorn who wrote (7629)	9/27/2019 10:34:28 AM
From: kimberley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26668

You are in my neck of the woods now, lol...I'm in Mississippi

To: the longhorn who wrote (7629)	9/27/2019 11:37:19 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26668

You're a great Dad. I've got a small amount of November 12.50 puts and a slug of 10's. Love to get them both - ditto February as well. This quarter and the Q4 of 2020 will have a LOT of expenses (including the kitchen sink) if I know Jeffrey Jones. Price has already reflected a crappy 2020. The semi's are being seen through this trough. The trade tariffs have created a lot of doubt and uncertainty. Those leading edge chip makers and equipment makers(ASML,Taiwan semi, AMAY, LRCX, KLAC), have all shown recovery already. Backend equipment makers COHU and TER will lag awaiting the volume ramp up of the next generation chips. I suspect it will tick up only after at least better guidance is given. Cohu's Q4 webcast (early February) usually has seasonally weak Q1 with poor/lower guidance. MAYBE with the better half of 2019 expectation that has fizzled away - it might be different this year - but I'll be pleasantly surprised if that happens. I've sold a lot of 12.50 puts and 10.00 puts for November and February with the hope of picking up some good value shares. I'm thinking the guidance for Q2 2020 has a good chance of showing some better system sales as mobility (5G ramp) shows better sales during the Christmas season for USA and Europe and Nwe Years sales in China. There is a lot of stock coming out of XCERRA holders. Cohu boosted outstanding from 27 million to 42 million. With all of the institutional position that Cohu historically has had. They are big players and can manipu via a good ole boy relationship with the Market Maker. The recent November 12.50 put action is proof of that. As long as big funds want to accumulate a bigger position - we must endure weak price shakeouts. Once Cohu puts in some solid growth with profits and their subsequent debt reduction realities, Cohu will blast back up into the 20's. There is a very old resistance level at 30, which if /when broken through, Cohu will be a favorite story and hi flyer IMO. Bob