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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: koan who wrote (420739)10/16/2019 12:30:42 PM
From: cosmicforce  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 540708
 
<she proved it worked last time>

You are using a very weak meaning of 'proof' here. Math models are JUST models. So what? Her model worked before.

By means of analogy, I live on a planet where we never encountered melting water. We build everything out of ice, but suddenly we have a period of warming over 0 degC. Not one day but weeks on end. Our model worked - until it didn't.

The maths are even worse for political models especially when we have the non-linear aspects of 'crowd mechanics' perturbed by Russian troll-farms. When I studied numerical analysis - there were some words of wisdom from my instructor.

Interpolation almost always works in real and continuous systems whereas extrapolation almost never works.



To: koan who wrote (420739)10/16/2019 12:45:07 PM
From: neolib  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 540708
 
You are still ignoring time. Show me anyone who predicted all those House races 12 months in advance.

BTW, who did Betecofer predict would win between Trump and Hillary? Just curious...