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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (1481)	1/23/1998 10:03:00 AM
From: seth thomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

I am fully willing to admit that I don't get it. Quarter after quarter of solid growth in top and bottom line. Continued pulling away from competitors. A track record of winning over competition. Great execution. Lots of growth in market potential. Great management team. Written statements that company will continue to grow substantially in coming year - no problems. Contrast with controversy and confusion over SEBL pipeline, unclear how they really do against competition and identical EPS. Why is SEBL market cap double VNTV? I could see 10 or 20% difference. Arrgh.

To: Trader Dave who wrote (1481)	1/23/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: Clam Clam	Respond to of 3033

Investor psychology can change. VNTV is a solid growth-at-a-price investment with excellent risk/reward. Most of the analysts out there are momentum analysts or i-banking colored. Morgan Stanley is an example of the latter keeping Scopus as Outperform and Vantive neutral. Lehman Brothers is a classic example of the former. Skiba wrote today "While (VNTV) is trading at only 34x our 1998 EPS of $.80, it lacks a catalyst to move it dramatically higher over the next several quarters." If that isn't momentum-based analysis, I don't know what is. I guess that means he would be willing to buy VNTV at 50 or 60 or 90x earnings if VNTV had showed an extra penny of EPS. I remain confident that VNTV will give me a good return in 1998 from my late 1997 purchase. I was cautious on the valuation until November. I play risk/reward and diversify so finding 10 stocks with VNTV characteristics is fine with me. If VNTV doesn't perform for another quarter or two, so be it but Vantive is creating value and if they keep it up, that will eventually be rewarded.