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To: TREND1 who wrote (9397)	1/23/1998 11:49:00 AM
From: RGinPG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

You are right of course, my studies only go back to 1929. Do you feel we are in the same financial climate as we were back in the 1920's? Do you really think we are at the brink of another Great Depression? The same argument can be made for Japan, falling interest rates preceded an extremely painful bear market that is still going. But I do not think we are in the same boat they were in 1989. I believe a much more likely scenario is that these low rates, if they continue, will lead to economic stimulation which will then lead to higher rates to control inflation, which will then lead to the next Bear.

To: TREND1 who wrote (9397)	1/24/1998 11:47:00 AM
From: edward miller	Respond to of 95453

>Well do not count out PEngr..... Look and study the 1922 to 1933 >time frame. Federal Reserve studies "show" that when "inflation" >is very very low, like it is today, the stock market rises very >high, but (and this is important)....the bear can come with >"low interest rates" In fact during the great depression the >3 month T Bill had a negative interest rate. Thank you Larry! Good research. As the old saying goes, "Never say Never". People need to learn that one must look at all the possible scenarios to be prepared. Historically speaking the postive, post-WWII investment climate should be understood to be an anomoly. This is obviously a very long term view, and in no way is a prediction that we will see another depression within our lifetimes. Also, no guarantee that our children will or won't live in times of war, famine, or any number of other catastrophic events. Ed Miller