To: TATRADER who wrote (1368 ) 1/24/1998 4:46:00 PM From: Michael Berkel Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Hi Mark. As far as equities are concerned, I don't believe 1998 will become a banner year. Actually I share Roger's bearishness and I forsee some more considerable problems in the cards regarding Asia. So far however I wasn't too happy with my short pick performances. I had to cover with a loss AVNT, ZONA, AOL, CTXS and AMZN, which all went against me due to my bad timing. I shorted AMZN for example at 50, just before it ran up to 64 and I shorted ZONA at 16, just before it came back soaring. Same story with AOL. Perhaps I have more luck with selling the S&P500 or the German market (DAX) or the Nikkei. Again the main question is of course one's timing, hence my question to you about entry points. So, from a TA point of view, would you reckon that shorting the S&P at last Friday's level would be a sensible move? Or should one rather wait untill a clear pattern has been formed? Remember P. Engr. saw a freefall situation once the S&P drops to somewhere between 900-910? Others see the Dow Jones Index breaking the 7600 level as crucial for a serious down move. Maybe one should better wait shorting untill the market has dropped a little further? It is remarkable that every time the Asian markets are quiet, the Dow jumps up. There is still a hell of a lot of money sitting at the sidelines and Money Managers seem to forget about Asia as soon as the numbers turn green again. This sideway trading could go on for quite a while before a clear direction becomes visible, in the meantime squeezing the shorts and the hefty premiums for S&P500 put options.
