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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kirk © who wrote (7926)12/3/2019 7:00:28 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 26693
 
HI Kirk,

Yes I think it needs to be a fast decline, or that may well become down into expiration.

It would be strange to have that happen two years in a row - actually down into Christmas, would be two years in a row.

No doubt also a great buying opportunity again in 2020 (as the global synchronized expansion takes hold again next year).

I too remember energy to become stronger at the end of a market swing up or top.

That is mostly because the energy spike, (brought to us by our friends in OPEC) took the wind out of the economic advance.

It could well be different this time, since we are acting as the spoilers to their illegal price fixing. Another reason why this long expansion should be relied upon rather than feared.

That being said I think the top bubblicious stocks are the renewable energy stocks like wind, that have had not only spent billions in developing them but billions in government subsidies falsely making them cheaper than coal or natural gas generated electricity, much also like electrical vehicle plug ins.

It's been hyped as coming soon and being so ubiquitous the the Internal combustion engine will become obsolete.

Just plain over blown, much like the internet was overblown in 2000.

IT ALWAYS TAKES LONGER!!

Yet still 19 years later there are a lot of retail stores doing quite well. They are far from obsolete and far from no longer in existence.

They will become more prominent. They will be at best a niche product,found primarily in urban areas (utilized by the more affluent), where recharging can be accomplished while not being used.

When they become so prominent that the government weans the rebates on them,they'll find growth much more difficult - just as we see in China now.

When that reality becomes more aware, the oil and gas vertically structured corporations will have a much more favorable valuation/multiple than that of today.

JMHO

Bob