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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Horgad who wrote (152142)12/18/2019 2:51:59 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217699
 
re <<super bubbly>>

looks that way except given the particulars the bubble might get larger.

my overall Message 32465910 PALL / PPLT / SBGL / SBGL options campaign is okay still, down 1.5% w/o counting in option premium as sure bet, and if w/ option premium booked as probable gain, then am up 1.9%.

As currently stances am good to cheer on PALL to rise, at some point to drag PPLT along, so can evolve the next phase of the campaign, namely shorting more PALL.

Bottom line, the ducks are still within the barrel.

Given the state of is, namely Message 32465910 , am pondering whether to do more options, short more Pd, or buy more Pt, or to sit & watch for a bit.

Of course, part of the consideration must include the overarching macro, pre- and post- January. Perhaps need a sign from Jay Powell, along the lines of, "the blue bottle-nose dolphin says it is safe to go ultra hyper long"

crazy



To: Horgad who wrote (152142)12/18/2019 3:09:46 AM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217699
 
In any case, in the next down-leg of Pd I may trade around the position a bit if only for exercise.

the metals Pd / Pt are not boring.

Not sexy like gold, or cheap thrills a/k/a silver, but not boring

Given the power outage steelguru.com , the cost of production of both metals just went infinite



On the watch & brief list must also be "trade" spglobal.com

In the meantime,

forbes.com

Palladium Heads For $2,000 An Ounce; Lock Up Your Prius!
Tim Treadgold
Palladium has cemented its status as the world’s most valuable precious metal with a price on track to hit $2000 an ounce thanks to strong demand and a worsening supply shortfall.

Used mainly as an exhaust catalyst in gasoline-powered vehicles it is hybrid-electric cars such as the Toyota Prius which have the thickest coating of palladium which acts as a catalyst to remove noxious gases.

Platinum, a close relation of palladium, also finds its way into exhaust systems, but mainly those powered by a diesel engine.

Visitors pass a crate of explosives inside the mine shaft during a media tour of the ... [+]
© 2019 Bloomberg Finance LPOften mined together the biggest sources of palladium and platinum are Russia and South Africa, countries with their own particular economic and political problems.

Over the past two weeks it is South Africa which has become the palladium price-driver thanks to a breakdown in the government-controlled electricity authority, Eskom.

A number of mines have been forced to limit underground operations after Eskom scaled back electricity production because of coal shortages at power stations and equipment breakdowns.

The pace at which the palladium price has risen has made it one of the world’s best performing commodities, rising by 50% since the start of the year and 16% over the last two months to reach $1937/oz, an all-time high.

The rapid price increase has sparked a rash of hybrid-electric car thefts around the world with the palladium-rich exhaust systems the primary attraction.

Power Shortage Driving The Palladium Price

Investors have enjoyed excellent returns from trading in palladium and platinum exchange-traded funds but the reason for palladium’s rise is largely a case of demand exceeding supply, a situation which could continue for some time given the deep-seated problems at Eskom.

South Africa’s President, Cyril Ramaphosa, has acknowledged the damage being caused to his country’s economy by the power crisis which has triggered production cutbacks in a number of electricity-intensive industries.

An ingot of palladium at the JSC Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant in Krasnoyarsk, Russia. ... [+]
© 2019 Bloomberg Finance LPMacquarie Bank said the stronger prices for palladium and platinum was a physical not a financial rally.

In a note to clients last week Macquarie said Eskom’s rolling blackouts posed a threat to South African platinum and palladium production which represents 75% of the world’s platinum output and 36% of palladium.

Because the metals are essentially interchangeable in vehicle exhaust systems it is likely that car makers will be assessing at what point they increase their use of platinum, a shift which could see platinum reclaim its position as a metal more valuable than palladium.

At the start of the year there was a $478/oz difference in price with palladium at $1263/oz and platinum $785/oz.

The price gap today is more than double that in January at $993/oz with palladium at $1937/oz and platinum $944/oz.