To: the Druid who wrote (45163 ) 1/24/1998 11:57:00 AM From: Cogito Respond to of 58324
>>Quote:"The pace of monthly retail sales growth on a year-to-year basis declined during 1997, from 114.6 percent in January, to 42 percent in June, to -7.6 percent in December, compared with the same months in 1996, according to PC Data, which audits sales from a group of retail accounts representing approximately 30 percent of total retail hardware sales."<< Druid, All - These numbers look really bad, until you think about what is really being said here. They are talking about changes in the rate of growth slowing, but they don't specify whether they are referring to dollar volume or unit sales. That makes the numbers a lot harder to interpret. If they are talking about dollar volume, then the declining retail prices, from $199 everywhere in January 96, to the current range of $89 to $149 could account for much of the slowing growth. They are also using retail sales numbers from a set of stores, not drives shipped from Iomega. It should be noted that in January of 96, Zip drives were not as common at retail as they are now, but by the end of 96 they were being carried by many more retail outlets. So that change alone would have added to the retail sales growth rate increase from year to year. My overall point here is that since more Zip drives were sold in the last quarter than in any other quarter before, sales are still growing, even without massive advertising in place. I think chances are very good that the advertising will get things moving faster again. BTW, KE is often given credit for being a great salesman. I don't really see that. I think he could have done a much better job painting the picture of the Q4 results. His statements that if the ad campaign didn't result in increased sales then the expenditures would hit the bottom line was probably necessary, from the standpoint of informing investors about risks. But he could have sold it better. For one thing, he could have issued a press release about it. When SyQuest, a company less than a tenth of Iomega's revenues, announced that they were going to spend 35 million on advertising, their stock actually got a bump. Kim Edwards needn't have said, "Revenues aren't growing enough, so we're going to advertise more." He could have simply said, "Hey, gang, we're gonna blanket the airwaves!" But that's not his style. He's actually very conservative about this stuff, in my opinion, and not much of a hypster at all. - Allen