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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (16570)	1/24/1998 6:04:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 50167

Semis and semi equip makers are no longer shorts for the midterm, it's time to start accumulating selected companies. On Friday I had posted the following: Message 3240741 On review of charts, price-volume data, and earnings reports for a spectrum of companies in the sector, a bottom is being put in for some and the trend has turned for others. My conclusion are based on some of these observations and data ... The market is numb from responding to the Asian flu, any positive news, or even nonnegative news, result in positive price action when the market goes in an upswing. Do not be fooled when the sector sells off when the overall market tanks, watch the buy volume pick up when the market reverses. Therein lies the true sentiment, and not what ANALysts say out of both sides of their mouths. Discounted into the stock prices is the expectation of a slowdown in revenue growth due to the Asian situation for the next six months. Concensus among those who work in the sector is that 1999 and 2000 will be banner years, the residual uncertainty is whether the rebound begins in the second half of '98 or a bit later. Unless there is more dire news in the next six months, the sector will be trading range bound with an UPside bias in anticipation of the recovery. By then the market will have adjusted and understood (yep, the herd is slooow) the semiconductor industry is international ... while Asia accounts for 1/4 to 1/3 of revenues for fabs, the potential growth from Asia is only delayed, not postponed forever. Ho-hum. Technically, MU has returned to its bull channel as I posted on another thread. Price of DRAM is firming and MU moving rapidly into the 64M stuff. TXN attacking its 200-day ema from below for the 3rd or 4th time, each time with more convincing volume. Next week TXN will unveil its DSCP chip and should complete its trend reversal. INTC firming, WS finally believed the company's multiple warnings about sequential quarter slowdown and did not do a knee-jerk reaction. AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, even KLIC (trust me, OJ) has set weekly higher lows in the past three weeks. Most notice the obvious in a down market ... that on each retrace up stocks set lower highs. But in a down market when stock set HIGHER LOWS, a bottom is being put in and the trend is trying to reverse. Lower highs, higher lowers ... like a coil getting tighter and tighter to be released on news. My sense is UP is now the natural path with the slightest catalyst. AMD, ATML, ADPT ... dogs of the semis and/or semis with sucky management ... even they did not make lower lows. Oh, I don't give a fig about mf .. mf will follow market sentiment. If I were short KLIC, I'd close soon, more upside risk then downside profit. AMAT ... bought cheap puts on strength to protect my longs. If the sector plays out as expected, I shall sell upstrike puts against my cheaps puts, over and over. Time to trade the long side now on this sector.

To: J.T. who wrote (16570)	1/24/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Whichever way it goes I think you are in for a colorful sordid details of a day or even night in life of 'White House intern'.I think she is refusing accuse Monsieur La President of obstruction or perjury charges that would save Clinton from impeachment threats. Sexual relationship with an intern in my opinion is not a impeachable crime it is the 'obstruction' which in my opinion could and may lead to very serious legal ramifications- I wish this guy may now employ some discretion and sophistication I would recall US Ambassador Harriman's prophetic words in her biography ' He would remain a President if he keep can control his zipper'. I am really concorned about impact of political drama and crisis if this thing goes out of hand the markets will suffer due to indecisive nature of accusations until dust settles this new element may add some pressure on the markets.