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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric Yang who wrote (7959)	1/24/1998 12:09:00 PM
From: soup	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

>AAPL can be very predictable.< Eric, we luv ya man and thanks for the creating/linking the chart but the wording of your conclusion is ... uhh ... strained (ambiguous). Alternates: "AAPL is predictable." OK, straightforward. Make an investment and hold on. "AAPL is very predictable." Meaning that future events/stock prices that will befall AAPL are very clear to you (Mama, load up the truck with February $25 calls, and pack our bags for the Caymans!!) or are simply clear to many people ("In its latest report Fidelity's Magellan Fund has listed AAPL as its top holding ... ") "AAPL can be predictable." Blatantly oxymoronic. "AAPL can be very predictable." Doh!! ---------------------- I interpret the chart/events as follows: The previous spikes were news/event driven -- after which, in the absence of follow through, the stock price dropped. Hindsight dictated the wisdom of selling into the spike. But AAPL has transitioned from a "value" stock into a "story" stock (Biotechs are my favorite examples.) Story stocks jump up on good news but fall back/languish in the absence of developments. Jobs, to his credit, seems to realize this and has/is parsed out the goods news on a timely basis -- at least until AAPL can transition itself into an "earnings" stock. CFO Anderson, at the last conference call, painted the most conservative picture of AAPL's earnings/finances. In effect laying the groundwork for future "predictable" earnings -- taking pains to minimize expectations. Finally, it's not predictability for which investors pay a premium but the illusion of predictability. Coca Cola is the example of this -- they will always find ways to make analysts look good. My conclusion, based on your chart, is that AAPL was a company without credibility that shorts did not fear. "Selling into the spike" was the correct strategy. But AAPL is in the process of changing the Darwinian (death spiral) paradigm that many analysts still subscribe to by "morphing" its technologies to survive and flourish in a Wintel world. Looking at the positive stock price followup to this quarters earnings suggest AAPL gainingg credibility as an earnings stock. So "selling into the spike" may not be the correct strategy form here on in. It's also a "bears game" -- inappropriate to someone fundamentally bullish on the company. Don't outsmart yourself. :1 soup [aka the Semantic (Symantec?) Cop]

To: Eric Yang who wrote (7959)	1/24/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: Edward Boghosian	Respond to of 213173

Eric: Very good work. One question. Do you think the slide after "Apple Events" due to debacle in Asian market and tech stocks getting hit or combination of Apple problems and Asian maket? In other words, if Asia didn't happen, Apple would not have gone down so low. Ed

To: Eric Yang who wrote (7959)	1/24/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213173

Here is the chart if anyone wants a quick look. Both this chart and the Apple calender will be up permanently for people to use as a reference. Yo' Eric your site's great. Thanks for putting it up. Just a nitpick, I think you mean "calendar" with an a.