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To: robert b furman who wrote (36751)	1/21/2020 8:57:27 AM
From: Bull RidaH	1 Recommendation Recommended By bull_dozer Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41413

Hi Bob, Thanks for the time taken for that well-thought out analysis of XOM. You certainly have done your homework on this company, and have a solid grasp of the company fundamentals. My analysis always starts with technicals, as I believe all known information is built into the price chart of the investment in question. If you examine the XOM chart you'll notice a distinct Head & Shoulders topping formation at the highs made in late 2014. As soon as the 88 price level gave way in 2015, the pattern yielded an initial downside price target of 64.22, with a final price objective of 48.70. We could debate for weeks on what fundamental reasons could cause such a Company to shed over half its market capitalization, but the primary items in my opinion are 1) the worldwide market acceptance of the EV, 2) Geopolitical risks brought on by our leader's changing objectives, which happen to be adverse to the profitability of many US CORPS with global exposure, and XOM is no exception. Case in point would be what's happened to our export markets in many sectors since the trade war began. What happens to XOM's price after $48.70 is reached? A spirited rally will no doubt arise, and I wouldn't be surprised to see $60 or higher reached with ease. I will need to see subsequent price action to forecast the following 10 years, but I do know we are facing a correction in the major indices the magnitude of which has not been seen in our country's 230+ years of equities history. I'll follow up with a chart showing the completion of 5 waves off the 1787 start to our equities markets at the next major top. What could fundamentally cause such an event? Dozens of things could be scripted, but I'll go with the old standbys of war, famine and disease. Solar output has reached 200 year lows over the past few years, and we're in jeopardy of experiencing a year like 1816 known as "the year without a summer." en.m.wikipedia.org One year like that which prevents a growing season in much of the country and we'll all see how vulnerable our equity valuations can be when they are priced for perfection.