Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Jedi who wrote (9617)	1/25/1998 2:05:00 AM
From: William L. Oppenheim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

We agree exactly on the technical analysis. However, the fundamentals appear strong, and with each additional down tick, stronger. Sooner or later the tide will change and I will be a buyer. Keep in touch and we will discuss the tide. Some folks use cycles of the moon in their analysis, so the use of the term tide is very appropriate. My own feeling about TA in general is that it is secondary to FA. There is some academic evidence that the use of moving averages can be helpful, but most studies discount the subject in general, and even the MA folks don't seem to have a dramatic advantage. The FWN post was exactly the type of post I look for in this thread. Thanks. As far as war talk, I've agreed to leave that discussion to Glenn Dickerson.

To: The Jedi who wrote (9617)	1/25/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: Tulvio Durand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Your decidedly negative prognosis for the oil drillers may have basis on some people's TA but not on the fundamentals you describe. I take issue with your statements as follows: (1) While three oil drillers did not meet earnings expectations, they did not miss by much (like SLB missed by only one cent), and you are ignoring the fact that a larger number of oil drillers have exceeded earnings expectations. (2) You equate oil price with oil-drillers' valuations. Yet we're told by drillers, Barrons, et al that oil price is irrelevant to the oil drillers' business unless it remains outside the range of $15-to-$30 for a protracted period of six months or longer, and none are expecting that to happen. (3) A US-led military response to Saddam seems probable. IRAQ's oil flow may be curtailed in the process, and spot oil price may well soar beyond the real influence of IRAQ's oil in the world market. Again spot oil price is not really relevant (for the reason stated in (2) above) except for a temporary market reaction. My guess is that the market will go down initially, and it will be soon led back up by energy issues including oil drillers. Tulvio