Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (703358)	2/9/2020 10:54:07 AM
From: Hoa Hao	2 Recommendations Recommended By alanrs Pogeu Mahone Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793914

Someone else where did some numbers based on the NY Post article LB posted. Might be a inaccurate but may give us a handle on how bad it really is. Quote: How many people in China have fallen victim to the coronavirus to date? One hint comes from how busy Wuhan’s 14 crematoriums have suddenly become. One crematorium manager told a Hong Kong reporter that, in normal times, his 24 ovens were lit five days a week for four hours at a time. Now, he said, they have so many corpses to deal with that all the ovens are going around the clock. This suggests the body count must be in the thousands. So. Single Crematoria datapoint: Normal Times 24 ovens * 5 days * 4 hours a day = 480 oven/hours used a week Current Status 24 ovens * 7 days * 20 hours a day = 3,360 oven/hours used a week [NOTE: You can't run equipment 24/7, particularly crematoria; you need down time to clean out the crematoria after each use, and unexplained breakages.] So. Let's look at this from earlier data posted in thread: XXXX wrote: Wuhan population is ~11 million, and life expectancy in China is about 76. That gives a crude estimate for deaths in Wuhan of 395 per day on an average day. Googling wiki gives us this: The cremation rate was 45.6% for 2014 according to Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs So this means that on an average day, 180 people in Wuhan are cremated, for 1,260~ per week total. Wuhan has 14 crematoria; so that's 90 bodies/week on average that each one handles. Googling some more: An average body of 150 pounds in a cardboard container averages about two hours. Figure about 30 minutes per cremation for misc issues (cleaning them out etc etc) and you have 2.5 hours per cremation. At 90 bodies a week, that's 225 oven/hours consumed on average for each crematoria to handle their daily workload. From that, we can infer that the Crematoria cited in the news article is one of the bigger ones. Taking the earlier stats we computed for that crematoria: Normal Times 480 oven/hours used a week Current Status 3,360 oven/hours used a week 3,360 / 480 = 7 times as much use a week. So that means the cremation count in Wuhan is somewhere around 8,820 bodies a week; about +7,560 more than the 1,260 a week that's normal for Wuhan.

To: skinowski who wrote (703358)	2/9/2020 12:41:22 PM
From: Katelew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793914

straitstimes.com <<Caixin: A 39-year-old patient in Hong Kong suffered from cardiac arrest, and his death ensued quickly. A few patients did not have severe symptoms upon the onslaught of the virus or in early stages, but they died suddenly. Some experts argue that the virus triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults. Eventually excessive inflammations caused by cytokine result in the higher mortality rate. Have you seen such a phenomenon in the coronavirus outbreak? Peng: Based on my observations, a third of patients exhibited inflammation in their whole body. It was not necessarily limited to young adults. The mechanism of a cytokine storm is about whole-body inflammation, which leads to a failure of multiple organs and quickly evolves into the terminal stage. In some fast-progressing cases, it took two to three days to progress from whole-body inflammation to the life-threatening stage.>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ As I posted to you last Friday, this description sounds like a septic process, doesn't it? Or something terribly similar. If this cytokine storm is affecting a third of patients, could this be the reason some cases are mild and others are deadly? I was asking about it last Friday because I was worried about my daughter, age 40, who is going to India this week, and she had fallen victim to septic shock in 2018. I put the above observations in my post, but it wasn't clearly differentiated and I didn't include the link.