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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Koligman who wrote (8370)	3/8/2020 12:02:06 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26587

The yield is tempting but high yield is often a predictor of a yield cut to protect cash. I originally posted that I might join Furman in an XOM trade in the low to mid 40's, but with headlines like the one this evening about the Saudi's starting an oil price war, maybe I'll wait... XOM now yielding 7%, BP around 8%, question is for how long if this really gets moving. CVX dividend probably the most secure... One reason to follow Buffett is he's often early due to the size of his fund, but he does have a good eye for business viability. He bought OXY and a smaller position in SU last year so that might be where I'd first look. Trouble with CVX is people here have been trying to put it out of business since the late 1970s when I was at UC Berkeley and took some environmental studies classes for easy electives with hippies for teachers. Also, we have a very high income tax rate... “This is going to get nasty,” said Doug King, a hedge fund investor who co-founded the Merchant Commodity Fund. “OPEC+ is going to pump more, and the world is facing a demand shock. $30 oil is possible.” Oil traders are looking to historical charts for an indication of how low prices could go. One potential target is $27.10 a barrel, reached in 2016 during the last price war. But some believe the market could go even lower. “We’re likely to see the lowest oil prices of the last 20 years in the next quarter,” said Roger Diwan, an oil analyst at consultant IHS Markit Ltd. and a veteran OPEC watcher, implying that the price could fall below $20 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to a low of $9.55 a barrel in December 1998, during one of the rare price wars that Saudi Arabia has launched over the last 40 years. Wow, I have $26.05 for 2016 on an intraday basis... $27.30 is what I get on a closing basis for 2016

To: John Koligman who wrote (8370)	3/9/2020 12:51:39 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Recommended By 3bar Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26587

Hi John, Not saying where the bottom is , but XOM's 4 hour 2020 investor day presentation is incredible detail on how they plan to efficiently use capital to slowly harvest maximum production of Permian into 2040 and beyond. Cube fracing is very informative - they've been doing it for almost 2 years and have improved well production since 2017. The delineating of existing but undrilled Permian Delaware section include, Gas pipelines, crude pipelines,recycled water pipelines and fiberoptic cable for digitization. They drill with seven rigs in a line and go to different depths through rock that traps the oil. The seismic knowledge of the reservoir and how to simultaneously drill and frac so that parent child loss of well in minimized is more than impressive.Each row of the rigs is spaced 10 miles aoart and the frac lines are 10,000 feet long going in all directions. Depending on the rock encountered they frac differently and show what they've learned in the lab about fracing. Modularized and smaller tank storage, gas compression plants are made outside of Texas where labor is cheaper are then shipped after drilling is done and very little is flared off as the delineation is completed before fracing starts. The efforts to efficiently drill and find oil,transport the oil, refine the oil are impressive,and export the upgraded products to the world are what the future cashflow estimates are all about. NOT more of a commodity called crude oil. More importantly they are upgrading steam crackers and colocated plastic plants using catalysts and proprietary technology to produce higher value products and reduce lower value products. Steam crackers are located on Gulf of Mexico for easy export to the world.Beaumont, Baytown,and Corpus Net result they will import less crude and export more refined products. Lower crude prices will hurt cash flow of course. They are not drilling more oil, they actually have fewer rigs than 2019 - but use them better to gain a more productive well. Drilling in Marcellus is shut down. They sold Norway operations one year early, yet expect to have same level of production Permian (more efficiently) plus deep water Guyana now producing - both profitable at low crude prices - especially when refined and added value upgrades. This is link - takes 4 hours but great DETAIL on "cube fracing". Drilling guy is excellent. Refining and Chemical guy is awesome! Upgrades going to pipelines and refinery upgrades to refine higher grade oils and plastics. Selling of existing assets XOM is/will be a great long term buy and hold stock for a dividend growth portfolio. I'll add more shares no doubt. We're seeing a perfect storm, and a great value buy for lord knows how many reasons. Here's the link: globalmeet.webcasts.com Hope you enjoy it. Bob Highly recommend listening before you buy any shares. Hope you catch the bottom or at least a 6% yield plus. This is bluechipper that will turnaround and appreciate in a long term buy and hold position.IMO Last but not least, selling off other low margin assets and high yielding new advantaged assets is a solid and excellent management concept IMO. It has worked for Kinder Morgan!