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To: Vattila who wrote (35863)	3/12/2020 6:02:23 PM
From: fastpathguru	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 73147

Two things: First thing: Unconstrained (i.e. not china, not SK), COVID-19 seems to spread at a rate that doubles the number of known cases every 2.5 days. Repeat: Cases have been DOUBLING every 2.5 DAYS. 1.33x/day. 7-8x/week. DO THE MATH. In a week, we'll have 15K cases. Two weeks? ~100K cases. (You can see this in the growth of cases in the US, independent of spurts in testing etc. For instance, today: We started with 1300 cases, and are on track to add another 400 or so TODAY.) worldometers.info This is a full-blown exponential. Even significant adjustments in assumptions about starting conditions or rates only advance/delay a figurative tsunami of cases by a matter of DAYS. HUMAN BEHAVIOR is the ONLY way to bend the curve and give us any semblance of a chance at fighting this. Second thing: THIS is what's coming if we, as a nation, do not stop pussyfooting around with this: theatlantic.com Private sector cannot fill the void left by the USA's utter lack of federal leadership. fpg