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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Triffin who wrote (707022)	3/15/2020 11:33:22 PM
From: skinowski	2 Recommendations Recommended By Maple MAGA Triffin Respond to of 793924

This is the first time in history that the entire planet is watching a pandemic unfold on a daily basis, play by play. This makes the numbers more real. Very different from getting a general summary months later after the fact. Distancing works, but if it’s strict and effective, it may prevent herd immunity from developing - and the disease may actually return. I’d worry about that when the time comes. Maybe we’ll have good vaccines by then. Found an article drumming the same drum I’ve been: Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 13;26(6). doi: 10.3201/eid2606.200320. [Epub ahead of print] Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality. Wilson N, Kvalsvig A, Barnard LT, Baker MG. Abstract We estimated the case-fatality risk for 2019 novel coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%-3.0% probably should be considered. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Edit - I still think their higher numbers of up up to 3% are a mistake due to testing being skewed towards severe cases.