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Politics : The Donald Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (35299)	3/16/2020 4:18:55 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 73700

Sure, it will benefit the consumer, but it will take out a lot of our oil shale companies over time. Then our oil majors will buy up the pieces, which is not a bad thing. However, the immediate impact was what triggered the stock market selloff and panic. It was the one, two punch of the coronavirus and the oil price war. If it had been me, I would have called MBS out on that and made sure he understand that I was not happy and that MBS' actions were going to have consequences. Trump did decide to fill up the SPDR and that is a positive step to put a floor under oil, but a more positive step would be to reign MBS back in and get him to support oil prices with the heft of the Saudi production cuts. The bottom line is that Russia and Saudi are colluding to take market share from the US and to put our shale oil out of commission. That's what they are aiming for. I would not be surprised if what we just saw was MBS and Putin engaging in very public theater to project the idea of an oil price war, when in reality the two of them were colluding to take market share from the US. That's why Trump needs to engage and remind MBS where his bread is buttered.

To: John Carragher who wrote (35299)	3/16/2020 4:26:03 PM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 73700

Good info here: "Half Of America Will Get Sick": Here Is What Goldman Told 1,500 Clients In Its Emergency Sunday Conference Call Around the time the Fed stunned markets with its 5pm Sunday emergency bazooka intervention, Goldman was holding an emergency conference call in which some 1,500 clients and companies dialed-in, making the comparisons to "Lehman Sunday" especially apropos. For those wondering what Goldman said, here is the bottom line via TME: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. *Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history**. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ?9/11 than it does like 2008.