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To: zax who wrote (141)	3/21/2020 9:31:19 PM
From: neolib	Respond to of 22882

The USA has been growing above the 33%/day log trend for a number of days, which I think represents a change in testing. It will revert to that line at some point, there isn't a physical basis for being as far above trend as it has been. So a downward shift to trend doesn't mean the USA is slowing down. It will take effects of the behavior change to actually slow down from there. Note the Italians have shifted to about a doubling in every 6 days, and are now calling out their Army to enforce behavior in an attempt to get flatter. I doubt our current situation, especially in many Red States is remotely close enough to get to even 6 day doubling. We have a long ways to go.

To: zax who wrote (141)	3/22/2020 6:40:25 AM
From: zax	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22882

I make no representation of the chart in red below, other than that it is a curve fitting exercise of a data set to the normalized weighted sums of two log-normal probability distributions, using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. It ignores a baseline of 398. Today's data point caused the projection as to when growth begins to slow to revise upward. I'll leave you to eyeball where this model projects we may be going yourself. Tomorrow's numbers will likely result in a revised projection. The RMS error today is 735.40 (45.963).