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To: The Ox who wrote (5642)	3/23/2020 2:14:48 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 8251

Interesting reads... as I'm doing more catching up. Message 32626347

To: The Ox who wrote (5642)	3/23/2020 3:17:15 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Recommended By Sun Tzu Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8251

Believe it or not the Investors Intelligence Poll has yet to show more bears than bulls. One would think that with the economy headed into a certain recession that we would see more bears than bulls in that poll soon. But as with many other indicators the price of copper included no one can be certain of when a long term bottom has formed. To me the best indicator that we are at the bottom will be when we get a 90% upside day in the market. Maybe two 80% upside days in close succession. By this I mean I want to see a day on higher volume than the preceding day that has 9 out of 10 stocks trade higher on 90% upside volume. This should lead to a week of upside volume that was higher than the preceding week's downside volume. Then finally a month of volume that also is higher upside volume than the preceding month. This happened in the bottom in 2002 and also after the financial crisis. It has happened at other shorter bottoms as well. Unfortunately I think we are a long way from a good bottom. RtS

To: The Ox who wrote (5642)	3/23/2020 4:31:56 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8251

Do you know what the average cost of copper production?

To: The Ox who wrote (5642)	3/23/2020 6:59:12 PM
From: Investor2	2 Recommendations Recommended By Return to Sender Sun Tzu Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8251

Looking at the virus stats, the US is very early in the outbreak and it will be several weeks before we know if the curve is being flattened by our responses/actions. We appear to be in the 3rd week of exponential growth pattern. At a minimum, we should expect that curve to take 6 weeks and possibly longer, if many continue to believe this is a hoax or a scam to isolate individuals and "take away their freedoms". It will be very difficult or impossible to accurately model the actual growth in the number of virus cases over the next couple of weeks because of the lack of testing early on. We really have no idea how many infected people there were a couple of weeks ago. A lot of the "growth" in the number of infected people is associated with the growth in the testing. Best wishes, I2