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To: Katelew who wrote (158458)3/30/2020 9:43:40 PM
From: bentway  Respond to of 358044
 
See if you can understand exponential growth. Google it.



To: Katelew who wrote (158458)3/30/2020 9:58:13 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Respond to of 358044
 
Well, I looked at the calendar on my computer, and said "200K tomorrow, 400 K Sunday, 800K on the 10th, 1.6M on the 15th, -0.6M to be conservative". Then I used a mortality rate of 3%.



To: Katelew who wrote (158458)3/30/2020 10:15:06 PM
From: Triffin1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Wharf Rat

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 358044
 
is there a model for your numbers?

415
552
696
944
1295
1695
2222
2484
3163 = 7.62 X in 9 Days

Nine days from now is April 8th

24,107

Triff ..



To: Katelew who wrote (158458)4/15/2020 10:09:28 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 358044
 
"how about 1M cases and 30K deaths by April 15? "

I over-estimated cases, under-estimated deaths; too bad it wasn't the other way around. Not everybody is showing the same numbers. NY added several thousand more deaths, and worldometer doesn't reflect that.

635,200

Confirmed cases in U.S.


32,081

Deaths in U.S.

nbcnews.com