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Politics : The Trump Presidency -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Triffin who wrote (158470)	3/31/2020 11:39:00 PM
From: Katelew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 358076

Triffin, there's no model that was a source of my estimations. I first derived my opinion a couple of weeks ago after looking at the complete data for the Princess cruise ship that was quarantined off the coast of Japan. Since then more data has come along from different parts of the world that support my deductions. What's needed now, imo, is for comprehensive testing to be done in at least four different parts of the county. The goal being to take a large sample group and determine what percentage are negative and positive. And of the positive group what percentage are asymptomatic and what percentage are symptomatic. And the number who died. It's terribly important to start getting a handle on what percentage of the population seems to have natural resistance. There's data to suggest it could be as high as 80% to 90%. If this number is added to the number of people who catch the virus but heal without ever having symptoms, that could mean that the segment of the population who catch it and get sick from it is so small as to begin opening the economy back up. You printed a string of numbers that I guess are you estimation of the growth of cases or of deaths? And then the number 24,107, which seem to be your guess at the number of deaths by April 8. Is that what your prediction? Like Wharf's prediction, this seems very high considering there are so few deaths thus far.