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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kip S who wrote (32591)	4/5/2020 11:52:11 AM
From: Rarebird	1 Recommendation Recommended By geoffrey Wren Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34328

There are a few things you forgot to mention. Firstly, the corporate sector is more leveraged now than it has ever been. That is to say, corporate debt is at an all time high. That is why the Fed is looking to buy corporate debt. Secondly, many on this board do not primarily buy the JNJ's of the world, they go primarily for the stocks with high yields, the REITs, the BDCs, CEFS, the stocks that have gotten annihilated in this bear market. Allow me to name a few of the darlings around here: NRZ from 18 to 3. NEWT from 23 to 10. IRM from 34 to 22. And let's not forget the great PIMCO core holdings around here: PDI from 33 to 20. PCI from 26 to 15. What I want to know is what the hell happened? These were the stocks that were suppose to hold up the best in a downturn because of their high yields and yet they underperformed the market, in same cases, drastically so? And now you naively ask when the dividend cuts are coming? Wait for the conference calls over the next month or so when companies provide little to no guidance and poor earnings. Then they will tell you all about the dreaded dividend cuts to set off the next leg down. The JNJs of the world will certainly survive and thrive again. The NRZs may not. And don't forget those companies that take the handout from the government can't buy back their own stocks for a year. I only mention this because buy backs were a big factor supporting the bull.

To: Kip S who wrote (32591)	4/5/2020 8:18:49 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34328

This report (about half way down the long page) has Dow Jones dividends going down 75% from 1930 to 1934. born2invest.com Another source relates dividend drop off as over 70% "For those who bought all of their stocks in 1929 the decrease in dividend income would have been over 70%." dividendgrowthinvestor.com There was deflation during the first 3-4 years of great depression which would have made the drop off in dividends less severe, more in the range of 60% in actual purchasing power. Since stocks dropped 89%, you can say that dividends held up better than the stocks themselves. I think the market might not be so bad, but some whole industries have been taken out and shot: retail stores, elder care residential REITs, BDCs, mREITS (their problem may be more liquidity and market calls, but those can kill a lender regardless), travel industry. Then there is more generalized recession or depression that will be in place with credit tightness affecting overly leveraged companies like many a REIT, greatly reduced taxes leading to government layoffs, reduced employment, etc., that will affect the whole economy and business profits will suffer. Last recession home prices led us into the recession. This recession will be more typical. Home prices will drop as a response to the economy. What worries me the most is the prediction that the economy will contract something like 25% in the second quarter. The Great Depression was 50% contraction. The Great Recession was only 5%. There is some tough sledding ahead.

To: Kip S who wrote (32591)	4/22/2020 7:25:03 AM
From: Rarebird	1 Recommendation Recommended By Graustus Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34328

I wanted to thank you for your thoughtful response. I take all responses and especially criticisms very seriously. I gave much thought to what you had to say and because of your post, I began to investigate some of your picks and decided to invest in JNJ, which is now trading premarket at a new all time high: Message 32662367 This led me to investigate other healthcare and drug stocks which I took a position in, such as AMGN, BMY, LLY, NVS, HUM and XLV: Message 32674348 Message 32667625 Almost all my trades are posted in real time. I will not clog up any more space posting my trades. You have guts and chose to respond, whereas most remain silent and closed within the wall of their dogmatism.