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Non-Tech : APCO Automobile Protection Company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TATRADER who wrote (883)	1/26/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: TheInvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3351

Mark, My reading of the charts is quite simple, micro term (1 hour to 1 week) a bit on the bearish side. Short term (1 week to 1 month) very bullish with a strong up trend. Medium term ( 1 month to 6 months) Very bullish. Long term ( 6 months to 2 years) also very bullish. TI

To: TATRADER who wrote (883)	1/26/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Cary C	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3351

Welcome Mark (even though it might only be for 5 days <g>). Its nice to have the 2 best TA guys I know here.Now if I only understood yourlanguage. I must admit that I would prefer it if you guys both agreed it was going to go up. I welcome all opinions though because it makes me a better investor. Earnings are due out first of next week. Even though you told me I had to factor in for people selling and taking profits, it seems that 3 million in overhead is awful high considering there was only a total of approx 850k shares that had traded over 7 at the time. Could you possibly break that down for me so I could understand it better. Accumalation vs. Distribution on 1/22/97 still confuses me. Unless Internet Trader is wrong(entirely possible - wouldn't be the first time). It showed that there were 3 to 1 buys vs. sells and that most of the sells came later in the day on lower volume. Wouldn't this mean accumalation or is it more predicated on closing price? Its refreshing to see a difference of opinion. I only wish that it was on the FA side so I could speak more intelligently about it. Like you told Doug, any further education you can give me would be greatly appreciated. Cary

To: TATRADER who wrote (883)	1/26/1998 11:40:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3351

Volume Is The Key... Mark: Very good analysis... We have positive MACD, and RS... MoneyFlow has turned from negative to slightly positive... What we need is more volume to power the stock higher... There is great anticipation of an excellent earnings release... Yet, the current level of volume seems to be contradicting this... I added to my position several times based more on the Fundamentals than the current TA... I have not ruled out possible market maker shenanigans that may be depressing the volume so shares can be sold from inventory at higher prices... Regardless, the anticipated earnings should positively impact the price on a large volume surge in concert with the earnings release... Jim

To: TATRADER who wrote (883)	1/27/1998 3:23:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3351

Hi Mark, Wow, quite a treatise there. Flattery will get you most places! Ummm, let's see now...I geuss I should look at the uptrend point first. It helps to supply the dates you are using to draw a trend. The most significant trendline on APCO is constructed using the lows on 6/27/97, 7/2/97, 8/22/97, 1/9/98, and 1/21/98. That line has been broken a few times but the stock has consistently returned to it and used it as a...launch pad if you will. That line is currently at approx. 6 5/8 and the stock price averages 20% above that line. 5% below that line would not really provide a good risk/reward ratio for a short play since the line IS moving up every day and you would have to cover at the very lowest ask, quickly I would assume, for a profit. Another note is that there has as of yet been no sustained acceleration away from this original uptrend and, almost as a rule, a significant breakdown will not occur until after such an acceleration. I would need to know also the parameters for your indicators to make an assessment of your interpretation of them so I'll just discuss the RSI. The RSI deals with closing prices only and ignores intraday peaks. The stock has never closed higher than 7 7/32 so you cannot use 7 1/4 as any sort of benchmark for the RSI. The day the RSI made its high, the price closed at 7 3/16. The recent push up in price had a high close of 7 1/16 so there is no aggregious divergence shown by this indicator. Now, understanding that exact performance in the past of any indicator rarely duplicates itself, I would like to point out the 13 day RSI activity from 10/17 to 11/7. You can see that on 10/28 the stock made an alltime closing high and there was definite divergence compared to the previous highs on 10/20 and 10/22. To be sure, there was a pullback in the price but only the very nimble would have been able to glean anything more than 1/2 point from a short. A sell at 6 1/4 and cover at 5 3/4 would have been the best anyone could do. That difference in price was of no concern to anyone long the stock at the time and any similar range now wouldn't be either (you can also note real divergence between that point and now but as is often the case, divergence can continue for some time before a stock actually reacts to it and in the interim a new indicator high may be attained). The problem a short here creates is one of nimbleness and even less potential gain since the short would have been initiated at 7 1/8 and most likely need to be covered at 6 3/4 or maybe 6 11/16. Now if that's all your looking for, I wish you luck but as you said, this is a trending stock. Next time I spot one over the IL, I'll bring you in on it. ABTX was my most recent short-term short play and I pointed out RADAF before that. (I found a great system to spot the best ones ya know). Doug R

To: TATRADER who wrote (883)	1/27/1998 6:57:00 AM
From: freelyhovering	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3351

Mark--Nice interchange between you and Doug for the good and welfare of APCO holders. In terms of accumulation/distribution the recent evidence according to TC2000 BOP and MoneyStream readings has been on your side. They have been short term weak, but in the last few days seem to be moving up to a more neutral position as if the selling is done. Frequently I have seen a blast-off from this posture. As one moves to 2-day and longer charts, the situation improves dramatically on these two measures. Myron