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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sense who wrote (156377)	4/11/2020 9:34:14 PM
From: Dr. Voodoo	1 Recommendation Recommended By arun gera Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217617

Let me give you a mathematical explanation to churn a few brain cycles on... since you like to think in thermodynamic outcomes instead of kinetic ones. The curve is the curve. Flattening the curve,,, does not change what is under it. Let me repeat that. Flattening the curve,,, does not change what is under it. 1.) Have consulted with everybody i know. Nobody has yet volunteered,,, including many anti-vaxxers I know,,, to give influenza to their 93 year old grandmother. 2.) Have also consulted with everybody I know,,, sans the anti-vaxxers,,, and nobody who is old enough to remember having the chicken pox recalls wanting to throw a party for all of their friends. 3.) None of us died of chicken pox, many did, and still do die of measles, colds and other preventable diseases, some of which we have vaccines for, but some of which we acquire immunity just by being a walking breathing human! The size of the curve....is the same. We don't know how big the curve is,,, and if you thought you knew,,, you still don't know because the confounding information of human herd immunity, human intervention etc is a steady alteration of the size and shape of the curve. The curve has only to do with the number of patients seeking care. It has zip, zero, nada, nothing to do with the number of people infected by COVID-19.

To: sense who wrote (156377)	4/11/2020 11:41:39 PM
From: TobagoJack	2 Recommendations Recommended By bull_dozer Dr. Voodoo Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217617

re silver, srsroccoreport.com PERU EXTENDS LOCK-DOWN ALONG WITH MEXICO: An Estimated 40% Of Global Silver Mine Supply Now Offline Posted by SRSrocco in Mining, News, Precious Metals on April 10, 2020 — 22 comments Now that the Peruvian Government announced an extension of the country’s state of emergency until April 26th, the world’s first and second-largest silver producers have taken 40% of global silver mine supply offline for a month. Actually, Peru first announced its national quarantine on March 15th. So, the country’s mines will be shut down for more than a month when the state of emergency is projected to end on April 26th. But, will it? According to the Reuters article, Peru’s Vizcarra extends state of emergency to April 26th; the country will remain on lockdown for an additional two weeks: Including Mexico’s state of emergency issued on April 2nd to last until the end of the month, the total estimated silver production lost from these two countries could be 28 million oz (Moz). That is 40% of global mine supply. But, what if additional mines have been shut down in other countries? As I stated in previous articles and my Youtube video updates, we could see between 100-150 Moz of global silver mine supply lost this year. However, if we just consider the estimated 28 Moz of silver production lost from Mexico and Peru, that would equal 28,000 of the 1,000 oz wholesale silver bars. With the continued surge in demand for silver bullion pushing availability of products back weeks and for months, it has also impacted the 1,000 oz wholesale silver bar market. How will the reduction of 28,000 wholesale 1,000 oz silver bars impact the market in the next few months?? Good question. Lastly, if the oil price continues lower, it is possible that the silver price will fall even further. However, this will not be the BUYING OPPORTUNITY that many are hoping for. Why? A further decline in the futures silver price will only exacerbate the already tight physical market. So, don’t expect to be able to find much silver at lower prices. As with the subject of INSURANCE… you don’t wait until there is a FIRE in the house to purchase fire insurance. It seems like the window of acquiring SILVER INSURANCE is running out, and will only become more difficult if the futures silver price falls lower.

To: sense who wrote (156377)	4/11/2020 11:43:09 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By dvdw© Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217617

re oil - wonder which suspects must pay out? and ... how much? by when? someone(s) ought to be sweating bricks. bloomberg.com The Secret Weapon Giving Mexico Power in the Oil Price War Javier Blas As Mexico and Saudi Arabia fight over a deal to bring the oil-price war to an end, Mexico has a powerful defense: a massive Wall Street hedge shielding it from low prices. With talks well into their third day, the Mexican sovereign oil hedge, which insures the Latin American country against low prices and is considered a state secret, is a factor that may make the country less inclined to accept the OPEC+ agreement. For the last two decades, Mexico has bought so-called Asian style put options from a small group of investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest -- and most closely guarded -- annual oil deal. Read more: Uncovering the Secret History of Wall Street’s Largest Oil Trade The options give Mexico the right to sell its oil at a predetermined price. They are the equivalent of an insurance policy: the country banks all gains from higher prices but enjoys the security of a minimum floor. So if oil prices remain weak or plunge even further, Mexico will still book higher prices. The hedge isn’t the only reason Mexico is holding out. But it strengthens the country’s hand and makes it less desperate for a deal than countries whose budgets have been ravaged by the collapse in oil prices since the start of the year -- first because of the coronavirus and then because of the price war launched by Saudi Arabia. The main reason driving President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a left-wing populist, to resist the deal is his pledge to revive oil production via state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos. Slashing 400,000 barrels a day to comply with the OPEC+ deal, rather than the 100,000 barrels a day that Mexico has counter-offered to Saudi Arabia, would put on hold his ambitious plan to return Pemex to its former glory. The hedge has shielded Mexico in every downturn over the last 20 years: it made $5.1 billion when prices crashed in 2009 during the global financial crisis, and it received $6.4 billion in 2015 and another $2.7 billion in 2016 after Saudi Arabia waged another price war. The operation comes at a cost. In recent years, Mexico has spent about $1 billion annually buying the options. “The insurance policy isn’t cheap,” Mexican Finance Minister Arturo Herrera told broadcaster Televisa on March 10. “But it’s insurance for times like now. Our fiscal budget isn’t going to be hit.” Pemex, the state-owned company, has its own separate, smaller oil hedge. This year, Pemex hedged 234,000 barrels a day at an average of $49 a barrel. State SecretMexico has disclosed very few details about its insurance for 2020 after it declared the sovereign hedge a state secret. However, based on limited public information, alongside historical data about previous years, it’s possible to make a rough estimate of the potential payout if prices remain low. The government told lawmakers it has guaranteed revenues to support the assumptions for oil prices made in the country’s budget -- of $49 a barrel for the Mexican oil export basket, equivalent to about $60-$65 a barrel for Brent crude. It locks in that revenue via two elements: the hedge, and the country’s oil stabilization fund. The fund historically has only provided $2-$5 a barrel, so it’s realistic to assume that Mexico hedged at $45 a barrel at least for its crude. In the past, Mexico has hedged around 250 million barrels, equal to nearly all its net oil exports in an operation that runs from Dec. 1 to Nov. 30. Using all those elements, a rough calculation suggests that if the Mexican oil export basket were to remain at current levels, the country would receive a multi-billion dollar payout. Since December, the Mexican oil basket has averaged $42 a barrel. If current low prices for Mexican oil continue until the end of November, the average would drop to just above $20 a barrel, and the hedge would pay out close to $6 billion, according to Bloomberg News calculations. Representatives of the Finance Ministry and Energy Ministry declined to comment. — With assistance by Eric Martin, and Nacha Cattan (Updates tenth paragraph with Pemex hedge volume and final paragraph with Finance Ministry and Energy Ministry comments.)