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To: bruwin who wrote (63769)	4/12/2020 9:46:54 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78819

Seems to me that folk need to apply a bit of Rational Thinking as to what has been going on and which country has been more, or less, effective at doing that ... I think China is once again producing more than 100 cases per day. If they're really "gone back to normal", I don't see any reason why we shouldn't once again get a massive outbreak in China (since these news cases are probably not in Wuhan, and therefore the newly infected regions are not now locked down and probably we're not all that locked down previously). A 4% death rate is better than some countries in Europe, but it's still pretty awful. USA is currently producing 30,000+ new cases per day. I don't see that number going down to 200 per day for a long while, and I also don't see the USA staying locked down for a long while, so ....... not sure what is going to happen moving forward. This is both fascinating and morbid to watch in real time. But seriously, USA has produced over 100,000 new cases in the past 3-4 days. That's, well, something! That's more in 3-4 days than 4x larger population China produced in 4 months.

To: bruwin who wrote (63769)	4/12/2020 11:43:59 AM
From: research1234	2 Recommendations Recommended By Jurgis Bekepuris sjemmeri Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78819

US Covid death rate is lower than Italy and Spain because the virus started earlier there. But if US deaths do top out at 60,000 then the death rate will be less than Italy/Spain on a truly comparable basis. If US death rate does ultimately match Italy’s, we’re looking at 200,000+, which I suspect is how that initial US estimate was derived. We could still get there if the country reopens for business too soon without a real plan to find and isolate future infected individuals.