Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SteveG who wrote (2529)	1/27/1998 7:13:00 AM
From: Steve Morytko	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9236

I'd call that jockeying for position and looking at the pessimistic side of the story. >> This week's hard copy of Network World has an article (pg. 14 "Heavyweight backing doesn't ensure DSL delivery" ) describing the problems of living up to the recent DSL .lite hype - not the least of which is an ITU first draft standard would be considered at the absolute EARLIEST in October. So even IF we get the RBOCs to go along (BIG "if"), as has been often suggested, no deployments until '99 at earliest. << Surely you're not suggesting that no one will deploy the technology before the standard is set - xDSL is already out there and you'll have a hard time getting it back from anyone using it! It should be, at least in Aware's case, a simple software change to update any deployed equipment. I suspect the same is true for other players. >> And SBC is on record saying that they will let customer demand drive DSL deployment, just as they did with ISDN. << I'd take that as a positive - I want it now. Do you have the URL explaining their stance? It won't be the RBOCs responsibility to screw it up (as they did with ISDN) this time. If they don't get it right the CLEC will take the business. >> Concerns of interoperation (which a standard hopefully, but not necessarily, will address) were also raised in the article. Also, the telephone noise issue was brought up, but a customer installable filter (as Globespan has announced) should address this. << Isn't that what UAWG is all about? >> The bigger hangup will be the CPE rat's nest. In addition to this, even without needing a truck roll to install the Y-splitter/filter at the NID, the RBOCs STILL have (an undefined) 30-40% of their plant with ADSL-killing inductance coils, which have been estimated to take 30+ man hours to find/fix... for instance, it's possible that your neighbor may not have them and you do, so if you buy your highend Presario ADSL preloaded, and your line hasn't been RBOC checked and cleared - it may be tough luck. << As I suggested in an earlier note, everybody is jockeying for position now. The entrenched, monopolistic telco's aren't happy about having to share their pie. They are upset because the CLECs can get to the local loop now and "steal" their cash cow. This is the baby (Bells) crying - and possibly an eager reporter trying to stand out on the negative side of the story. 30+ hours?? So just order a second line and say "no inductance coils please". Worst case add $100 installation fee. The RBOCs have been upgrading CO's and trunks for years knowing the plant isn't where it should be. I'd venture a guess that if your modem connects at 14.4 or better you don't have any inductance coils on your line. If you had inductance problems they probably already "sold" you a modern second line by not fixing your first one (which was fixed during the 2nd line installation). >> (As always - IMO) when dealing with the Bells, their aging, problematic copper plant and this technology, be prepared to wait, and possibly lose. << I'm riding out the noise. When AWRE (and many others) take off it's going to be a fast ride up. I'm wouldn't be surprised to see a "bad" earnings report to shake out the weak stockholders. Looks like the scared equipment suppliers were targeted yesterday. Get your cash ready.