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Strategies & Market Trends : Buying SPLITs and other Strategies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (1159)

4/18/2020 9:54:26 AM

From: Terry Whitman

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1163

Current Nasdung Weekly Chart comparison:

Let's see how recent action compares to the Y2K top and subsequent Bear.

Date	Event
2/17/20	Bull Market Top
- 5 weeks
3/23/20	Initial Sell-off low (-33%)
Rebound High	est. +33% ~8800 level

Summary:
1) The Nasdung had a long bull run prior to early 2020, with a 'blow-off' top to finish it (March 2020). The blow-off ramp lasted about 18 weeks. It was apparent to anyone with an objective mind that stocks were incredibly overvalued, and had been for years.

2) The initial sell off lasted 5 weeks (to week of March 23), and shed -33% from the high. The speed/slope of the initial drop was historic.

3) The initial rally has lasted 4 weeks, and has gained +31%. The speed/slope of the initial rally is also historic.

4) See future projections below. Expect the speed/slope to continue to be historic.

COMPARISON / PROJECTION:

Timing Event	Y2K Bear	Current Bear / Correlation
Final Blow-Off	20 weeks	18 weeks / 90% Correl.
Inital Drop	11 weeks	5 weeks / 45% Correl.
Initial Rally	8 weeks	4 weeks+ / 50% Correl.
Secondary Drop	12 weeks	Proj. ~6+ wks / @ 50% Cor.
Final Low	31 Months Total	Proj. ~15-29 Months Total

In Conclusion- Based on the above correlations, I expect the current Nasdung rally to top out within the next week at a level near 8800. Then, I would expect to see new lows within 6-7 weeks. The ultimate lows should be 15 to 29 months distant from the top based on time correlation of 45 to 90%. So bear market low sometime between June 2021 and August 2022.

MTW