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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (9495)	4/26/2020 8:56:57 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26417

A contagious disease expert at U of Wash hammered out that point a long time ago, and actual said in the video attached to the tweet, I'll paraphrase -- the same number of people will get it, but the hospital system will not be overrun. Funny how flattening the curve invoked blow-back wrath from idiots. Hopefully, in our real future, flattening the curve will also reduce infections by allowing a vaccine to get here before the herd immunity arrives. Also... in 1918-1919, the much more dangerous Spanish Influenza ended up infecting 27% of the world (going by memory, but that is 500 million) and best estimates imo were 40-50 million deaths. That was far more lethal. This is similarly far more lethal than 'ordinary' influenza, which is down around 0.05% deaths per infection. Meaning this is about 12-14x as bad as a regular flu season. I know herd immunity is often cited at 70%, but that pandemic a century ago "only" infected 27%, although it did infect more in subsequent years, but not nearly so many. But that might partly be because influenza does have seasonality associated with it.