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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w0z who wrote (9505)	4/27/2020 1:27:50 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 26770

They are not the same thing. R0 is the transmission potential. It remains constant. Rt is the transmission rate. It changes based on circumstances such as social distancing.

To: w0z who wrote (9505)	4/27/2020 2:36:27 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 26770

In addition to what Sun Tzu gave you, this is useful for more info: effective reproduction rate (Rt on that link or R on this link) R = Ro x X The effective reproduction number can be estimated by the product of the basic reproductive number and the fraction of the host population that is susceptible (X). So: R = R0x For example, if R0 for influenza is 12 in a population where half of the population is immune, the effective reproductive number for influenza is 12 x 0.5 = 6. Under these circumstances, a single case of influenza would produce an average of 6 new secondary cases. To successfully eliminate a disease from a population, R needs to be less than 1. healthknowledge.org.uk Ro = Basic reproduction number en.wikipedia.org

To: w0z who wrote (9505)	4/27/2020 2:45:30 PM
From: Kirk ©	1 Recommendation Recommended By kimberley Respond to of 26770

Just guessing.... What did VT do to get such good results? Perhaps they social distance by default... I think Montpelier, the capital, is probably a smaller town than Tiny Los Altos in CA.... Montpelier, Vermont 7,855 en.wikipedia.org Los Altos population 28,976 en.wikipedia.org How did LA go from a crisis in NO to one of the best overall? NOLA... my guess is once they shut it down after Mardi Gras and the government started paying $600 a week extra to be on unemployment, most who had jobs and lost them are happy to sit home and not work for more money than they were making in the very poor state. Government "workers" probably still get paid and just do nothing at home rather than look busy in a government building.