To: Techteam who wrote (27534 ) 1/27/1998 4:34:00 PM From: stak Respond to of 33268
The Talk of the Internet From PC Magazine,January 20, 1997 By John C. Dvorak At the last NetWorld+Interop show, the floor was abuzz with the gigabit Ethernet blitz. But the buzz in the back rooms was about voice over the Internet. In two days of conferences, 27 out of 32 general conference sessions were about voice over the Net. Case after case was made for using Internet connections to do voice transmission using IP addressing. This is going to be big, and the big loser is going to be the switched-phone network. Jeffrey Phillips at Lockheed Martin noted in his presentation that the phone companies revere their expensive voice switches much the way old-timers worshipped mainframes. IP telephony makes voice switches an anachronism. Don't confuse IP telephony with the various Internet phone devices that have been on the market for a few years. These devices never seemed to work, giving you broken, chopped-up speech while the promoters kept saying, "I had a connection to Japan that was perfect! You'd think the guy was in the next room." Then when you tried it yourself, the call sounded like this: "HEL-I ave you got t ugh doing today?" This kind of pathetic quality isn't the case with the newer schemes, which are based on systems that link virtual PBXs from corporate site to corporate site over an efficient high-speed data link. The VPBX, or IP PBX, or whatever you want to call it (one group calls it the Un-PBX), may then be hooked into the local phone system. So this makes all the calls from company headquarters in San Diego to the Tokyo branch office that are made with an on-site IP PBX into local calls. The quality may be superior to the choked-down-bandwidth analog systems of the traditional telco network. The phone companies call these schemes bypasses and have been fighting them since the first microwave transmitter was installed. The schemes are moving ahead faster than any telephony plan I've seen since the cellular system. There is a lot of downward price pressure on phone service, and after having been promised inexpensive ISDN and ADSL and delivered a confused product mix, bad service, and nonsensical price schemes, large corporations have given up on the phone companies. And the phone companies seem rather clueless about this entire movement. I've culled some of the more interesting assertions and research data that were documented in the NetWorld+Interop sessions. More than a few are eye-openers. 1. According to Data Communications, the average cost of a phone call is 6 cents a minute for a domestic call and 25 cents a minute for an off-shore call. Using packet voice technology over a voice virtual circuit drops the costs to 1.8 and 12 cents a minute, respectively, and using packet voice over a data virtual circuit drops the costs to zero. 2. Consultant Kenneth Guy asserts that using a phone/fax IP gateway will nominally save each remote site of any business between $10,000 and $20,000 per year. 3. Voice consumes an average of 1.5 Kbps in bandwidth but may require up to 10 Kbps. Over 200 calls can be made simultaneously over a standard T1 line. 4. Technologists at Mitel are predicting the movement of LAN technology to voice LAN and the emergence of a voice OS! This coincides with the predictions of those who visualize voice recognition everywhere. 5. Research organization Killen & Associates predicts that today's $1 billion market for Internet voice services will develop into a $60 billion market by 2002. The company further predicts that in 2002, 35 percent of all phone calls will be made over IP networks. 6. The term multimedia is reappearing and has morphed into meaning the convergence of voice, data, and video on a LAN! No kidding. Multimedia LAN was used by speaker after speaker to indicate a merger of traditional LANs with digital voice and MPEG. 7. The first worldwide use of IP telephony may grow from the various fax-over-IP schemes. Again, saving money is the motivation. 8. Funniest quote: "When God created the world in seven days, He did not have to deal with the installed base."--Tim Wilson of Lucent. 9. According to Philips, the phone companies could lose up to $1 billion a year in revenue by 2001. Forester Research puts it at no more than 4 percent of revenues by 2004. There is wide disagreement on the numbers, but everyone agrees that phone companies will lose revenue. Look for the whole scene to explode this year. John C. Dvorak Archives Bio Discussion TOP Copyright (c) 1997 Ziff-Davis Inc.