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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (9858)	1/27/1998 3:24:00 PM
From: DNaber	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thean, If you haven't seen this yet, it may make you feel a little more comfortable with the Asian demand scenario. Lifted from MF's Oil and Gas board...Dave Salomon Analysis of Asian Oil Consumption Distressed - Est. '97 Not Distressed - Est '97 Consump. Consump. Countries (MMB/D) Countries (MMB/D) S. Korea 2.2 China-excl HKG 3.9 Thailand .9 India 1.6 Hong Kong .4 Japan 5.8 Malaysia .5 Australia .8 Indonesia .9 Others 2.9__ Total 4.8 15.0 Total Asian Consumption = 29.8 MMB/D Global '97 Consumption = 73.8 MMB/D Distressed Asia as % of Global Consumption = 6% They also stated "We note that even under the worst-case scenario, some economic growth is anticipated for the distress economies. SSB projects 1998 GDP growth of Korea of 0.6%; for Hong Kong it is 3%. For the distress Asian economies, the average economic growth rate in 1997 was about 5%. Suppose these economies were to have no growth in 1998. This would "cost" global oil growth about 0.24MMB/D. Offsetting the slower demand in growth in Asia, we note that there are =regions of economic strength expected for 1998. Europe is expected to show above trend GDP growth, with the exception of possibly the U.K.