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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Luke who wrote (32224)	1/27/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: lin huan chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

***OT****** Tim: If you think you are smarter than everybody else, you have to prove it by your records not by your mouth. I have been followed you since you said you are such a good trader. What do you contribute to this thread anyway? My cat even can guess it right half of the times.I propose a challege if you have the guts to accept it. We each pick 4 stocks. Six months from now we see how good you are. Loser disappear form SI. Lin

To: Tim Luke who wrote (32224)	1/27/1998 9:22:00 PM
From: john dodson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

If you take in account for what is happen last week at Billy's House asnd would be in the 30's this week. Tim, Initially I thought this as well. However, if this is true, then how come it's not keeping INTC down or CSCO down or SUNW down or BAY down or MSFT down or ...? There may be some effect from zippergate, but I think it has more to do with other factors. Factors such as: 1. Earnings forecasts are not that great. As Gary Korn mentioned, sure visibility is good, but the projections aren't exactly exciting. ASND is currently trading above a forward pe of 23 for current 1998 earnings projections, with a forecasted growth rate of 25% or so. 2. Each passing day, the buyout rumor becomes less and less of a factor. Hence, whatever portion of current ASND holders who bought in large measure on the hopes of a buyout probably gets smaller each day, as the speculators unload and create a slight downward pressure. This is probably a good thing, longer term. 3. There are more compelling buys right now than ASND. Several have already been mentioned. How about AMAT trading at 15 times 1998 earnings estimates, with a consensus growth rate above 20% or even INTC trading at about 19 times 1998 earnings estimates. Sure ASND has the potential to be a bigger % gainer, but I don't think the confidence is there yet. They gotta show continued improvement and execution of revenue growth, earnings growth, new contracts and so on. I hope you're correct on ASND hitting the bottom. If this is the case, I would expect a bounce back above $30 pretty soon. -John Dodson