To: Donald Lickman who wrote (484 ) 6/5/1998 5:01:00 PM From: Tomas Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2742
Libyan oil find too hot for investors The Calgary Herald, June 4, 1998 By Barry Nelson Putting out the word about a huge oil discovery should boost a company's share price, right? Well, not in the case of Red Sea Oil, a company with a registered office in Vancouver, a technical centre in Dubai, a listing on the Alberta Stock Exchange and a super well in Libya. Alex Schneiter, Red Sea's Dubai-based vice-president of exploration, met about 40 Calgary analysts and investment dealers on Tuesday, explaining what the company plans to do with its 83 million barrel find in the Libyan desert. Red Sea's shares, which had closed at $2.35 on Monday, fell to close at $1.74 on Tuesday before recovering to $2.05 on Wednesday. Calgary brokers say the drop wasn't related to Schneiter's presentation but to an institutional investor dumping a million shares that were picked up by other institutions. Salman Partners crossed a block of 500,000 shares and other brokers moved another 500,000 at an average price of $1.60. The sudden price shifts reflect the uncertainties of doing business with a rogue regime. Schneiter insists an American ban on U.S. companies doing business with Libya creates wonderful opportunities, but others aren't so sure. "I'm surprised there's not more Canadian companies there. There's so much upside, " Schneiter says. "You have less competition and don't have to deal with the Americans. Libya is underdeveloped because there aren't as many companies there as there should be. "You go places that are a bit more difficult, but you get very good acreage and very good upside. "We've never had any problem whatever. No company in Libya has ever had a problem producing or selling oil. It's comparable to doing business in the U.K. or Canada." Red Sea holds a 60 per cent interest in the 9,820 square km. NC177 exploration block in the southwest part of the prolific Sirte Basin. In November, the company drilled the BI-NC177 that tested at a rate of 6,800 barrels a day from four zones, and the company claims proven and probable reserves of 83 million barrels from the two upper zones. Red Sea now plans to drill two more appraisal wells and to re-enter an old well on a separate structure three km. away from the discovery. "It looks like they have found additional upside to the west of the original discovery and some of the leads they have look relatively attractive," says Nick Rontogiannis, a Calgary analyst with Salman Partners Inc. "The only thing I didn't like (about Schneiter's presentation) was he didn't get into the Libyan risk. I don't think investors in Canada appreciate the magnitude of risk. "I actually think operating in Libya is less risky than other parts of Africa, but the possibility of the rules changing underneath you is still there." Martin Layzell, an oil and gas advisor to Yorkton Securities, listened to the presentation and feels that "indications so far are very positive. The test rates indicate good reservoir quality and strong production potential. "Appraisal wells and seismic are going to be extremely important to determine the size of the pool. "Petroleum consultants classify Libya in the moderate category for political risk, but despite the current regime, the country remains fairly stable and there are only moderate barriers to doing business there." Schneiter says that Red Sea plans a $60 million U.S. development program that calls for production from the discovery well, one appraisal well and five development wells to be producing 27,000 barrels a day by the year 2000. The output will be moved about 100 km. to the Samah oil field through a $17 million U.S. pipeline. "We think we can double the reserves mainly from deeper targets we haven't penetrated yet," Schneiter says. "We stopped the discovery well at 8,500 feet because the rig wouldn't go beyond 9,500, and we will drill one development well to 11,000 feet to test the deeper zones. "The whole block is huge and we've been concentrating on just 20 per cent of it. We know all the southeastern portion is even more prolific than the discovery well because it's closer to the kitchen area where the oil is being generated in the basin."