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Technology Stocks : VIAS VIASOFT & THE Y2K PROBLEM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob L. who wrote (1122)	1/29/1998 1:42:00 PM
From: Ed Zhao	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2067

The reason for this stock to be a good short target is quite simply. VIAS is a pure play in y2k. With the limited time frame for the stock to make money, It's important to look at quarter-to-quarter revenue growth. The current quarter revenue is 15% higher than the previous quarter renvene and less than 10% higher than June quarter. When the quarter-to-quarter revenue growth slow, investors in it for a big ride started to bail. Foundmentally, even if we assume VIAS can maitain 10% Q-T-Q revenue growth until 3Q 97 (calender) then flat after that and a generious 35% margin, it's 1999 earning will be around $3. With a P/E of 8, plus $6 in accumilated cash, makes the stock at $30. That above is the best case scenario. Other risks are: 1. It can not maintain furture revenue growth from now. That cuts 1/3 off above estimate. 2. The revenue in 1999 will decline, that cuts another 1/2 off the estimate. The down side is $10. XZ