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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (15116)	1/28/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: Michael Ohlendorf	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Is this another false breakout. I have been fooled so many times before that I am slowly starting to become cautious (or older ?).

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (15116)	1/28/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

From The Motley Fool Dynamic random access memory (DRAM), PC, and electronics manufacturer Micron Technology (NYSE:MU - news) jumped $2 3/8 to $34 3/4 after Montgomery Securities raised its earnings estimates on the company, which also helped digital signal processor (DSP) and DRAM company Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN - news) rise $3 13/16 to $55 5/16. Talk is that DRAM prices are on the rise after a wrenching inventory adjustment from South Korean DRAM manufacturers. Industry people will tell you that it's contract prices that really matter, but like other commodity-driven industries, it's hard to ignore the signals that spot price moves give on the direction of contract pricing. One would think that professional money managers would be acquainted with the dynamics of inventory accumulation and liquidation, which decide spot prices but not contract prices. Judging by the equity value of Micron, the Wise are not as well-acquainted with the industry as many Foolish industry participants who post freely and intelligently on Internet message boards. He's not talking about us now, is he?<g> BTW, how can they possibly try to gauge with any accuracy whatsoever what MU will earn in '99 at this point in time? DRAM prices change weekly and to raise or lower a forecast by large amounts based upon a multi-week trend seems foolish to me. DRAM prices have plunged ~60% in the past 6 mos. but have risen ~10%?? in the past few weeks. To extrapolate out that far based only upon this appears on the surface to be a futile effort. JMHO. Any other opinions? Regards, Brian