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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (160761)	7/31/2020 7:08:32 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217791

Re <<DRD ... time to dump?>> (1) I do not believe so. (2) A wobbling may hit, but not limited to DRD, or the mining complex, or gold, or general equities, or anything, but cover everything w/ cr@p. I do not and cannot know, how, when, or how bad. I have faith in the Fed and the other CBs, and I am counting on all politicians everywhere, that a wobble shall happen, and once so, gold shines again. (3) My DRD position is not straightforward. All my option positions are short the DRD call- and put-options except I am long the November Put Strike 5 and I have very little of that particular option. All my calls are calls covered by underlying shares. 90% of my DRD shares are spoken for by covered calls at the strikes indicated (15 and 17.5) (4) Would be ideal if DRD runs into the various expirations at 15 on the decimal. I shall likely not be that lucky. (5) I do want still more DRDs. It is next best to gold, has leverage, managed well-enough, and is aligned with the Force, I believe. (6) I do not want to be shaken off the gold bull. (7) GS is blabbing blah blah blah w/ forked tongue. I am good w/ sub-15 DRD. I want more even though it already is a very large position for me, thus the complicating options structured to earn whilst we wait. The premiums are reasonable. In the meantime ... something again different, and I am biased to prefer ‘different’ bloomberg.com Gold Traders Issue Largest Delivery Notice on Record at Comex Jack Farchy Gold of various weights and sizes. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg LISTEN TO ARTICLE Traders on the main gold futures exchange in New York have issued the largest daily delivery notice on record. In the latest sign of how the market’s norms have been upended by the price disconnect that struck in March, traders on Thursday declared their intent to deliver 3.27 million ounces of gold against the August Comex contract, the largest daily notice in bourse data going back to 1994. While millions of ounces of gold trade on the futures market every day, typically only a tiny fraction of that goes to delivery. But in recent months, huge amounts of bullion have flowed into New York and the Comex has seen record deliveries. Read: Virus Has Sparked Round-the-Clock Rush to Fill U.S. Gold Vaults That’s the result of a disconnect between prices in the two main markets, London and New York, that began in March as lockdowns grounded flights and shuttered refineries. Futures, which typically trade in lockstep with the London spot price, soared to a premium of as much as $70 an ounce. Since then, that premium has been smaller, but there have been regular flare-outs. In response, arbitragers have shipped precious metals to New York to capture the price differential -- and the result has been much larger than normal deliveries against Comex futures. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE Sent from my iPad

To: carranza2 who wrote (160761)	7/31/2020 8:11:12 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217791

I expect DRD volatility because that market says so, that should one buy a share of DRD at 15.20, and short the November Call / Puts strike 15, one should might get (depending on executions) 2.85 for the call, and 1.75 for the put, a 31% return booked on 20th November should DRD sit on the dot of 15.00. DRD currently is net biased to bull side, but w/ large uncertainty to the bear side. The gold bank is good, but is a bank, and not cash, thus deserving an interest rate, and 31% seems fair for 110 days. My Kodak and Tesla plays both worked well yesterday, and am in better position to GetMoreGold, but maybe by and by. Believe much play left in the stock market to mine for gold. Question in mind, how bad the gold corrects if at all, and if not, why am I not all-in? finance.yahoo.com

To: carranza2 who wrote (160761)	7/31/2020 8:21:16 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Recommended By zamboz Respond to of 217791

Must keep this eventuality in mind, together w/ stock split, per standard operating procedure Is why i do not hold overnight position in the beast long or short. Well, let me correct that by adding ‘significant’, long or short. bloomberg.com When Tesla Hits the S&P 500, It’ll Spark the Wildest Passive Trade Ever Elon Musk’s company would be the largest ever added to the index, and its inclusion would spark an “all-hands” trading moment. More stories by Sarah Ponczek July 31, 2020, 2:00 AM PDT Tesla CEO Elon Musk Photographer: Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images LISTEN TO ARTICLE Beating the S&P 500 is notoriously difficult for fund managers. But simply replicating it as closely as possible isn’t always a picnic, either—and Tesla Inc. has found a way to make it a little harder. The market value of the electric car company currently stands at about $277 billion. That would make it one of the biggest companies in the S&P 500, except that it isn’t a part of the index yet. The keepers of that list, S&P Dow Jones Indices, have a rule that new companies must have been profitable in their most recent quarter and over the past year before being added. With its latest earnings, Tesla just crossed that line. Tesla’s assembly plant in Fremont, Calif. Photographer: Sam Hall/Bloomberg The possible addition of the carmaker is a big event for managers of index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds. They’re already hashing out strategies for one of the biggest potential trading challenges they’ve faced in years. Tesla would be the largest company in dollar terms ever added to the index, which managers of $11 trillion of investments either track religiously or use as a benchmark. At the current prices of Tesla and other stocks, managers of passive funds will have to sell about $35 billion to $40 billion of shares in the rest of the index’s companies to make a hole big enough to fit purchases of Tesla shares, according to Gerry O’Reilly, a principal and portfolio manager at indexing giant Vanguard Group Inc. “Assuming it’s going to be added, it’ll be an all-hands-on-deck type of trading,” he says. There’s no template to follow for Vanguard’s two dozen U.S. traders—plus a team of analysts who work on keeping transaction costs down—when it comes to efficiently handling a stock as big and volatile as Tesla. Nor is it easy to predict the ripple effects in the overall market. The shift in the index composition could be announced anytime. The addition theoretically could happen along with the departures of ETrade Financial Corp. or Tiffany & Co., which are being acquired, or as part of a routine quarterly rebalancing in September. Index funds may get as few as a couple days’ notice of the switch. So they need to decide if they should start buying before the addition, the day the stock is to be added, or afterward. Picking which approach isn’t as simple as it sounds. While Tesla’s stock may be bid up by traders trying to take advantage of demand from indexers, other investors may treat it as what O’Reilly calls a “super liquidity event.” That is, longtime Tesla shareholders who are looking to trim positions may try to get out when they know index funds have to buy. The two kinds of investors could cancel each other out. “There are all sorts of crosscurrents,” O’Reilly says. He says he’s confident Vanguard will be able to handle the switch without a major “tracking error”—that is, a dislocation between the performance of the index and the funds that follow it. Like many things about Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, his company’s path into the S&P 500 is unconventional, which explains how Tesla became the gorilla in the room for the index fund crowd. Investors simply believed in the Tesla story enough to bid the share price into the stratosphere despite a record dotted with more quarterly losses than profits. The S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization—with the most highly valued companies taking up the largest share of the index. If that were the only standard, Tesla would have qualified awhile ago. The threshold to be added is a market value of a little more than $8 billion. The committee that decides the membership of the S&P 500 is keeping mum about when—or even if—it plans to add Tesla. “Companies who meet the eligibility requirements are not automatically added to the index,” said a S&P Dow Jones Indices spokesman in an emailed statement. “They join a pool of other eligible candidates and are considered for inclusion when an opportunity presents itself, at which point the Index Committee takes several factors into account such as sector balance and size representation.” When figuring out how to weight companies in the index, the S&P adjusts their value to reflect the number of shares available for trading. Using that standard, Tesla would likely be the 17th-largest company in the S&P 500 if it were included now, with an index weight of about 0.8%—between PayPal Holdings Inc. and Pfizer Inc. One of the largest additions to the benchmark in recent history occurred a decade ago with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which at the time had an adjusted market value of $127 billion, far less than Tesla’s today. But it represented a bigger weight in the index then. While indexers strategize about how to handle this shake-up to the passive investment world, traders with a more active approach will be trying to figure out how to profit from price swings created by the potential announcement. “The trade would basically be buy Tesla, sell everything else, and you’d start to see that in the market,” says Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Still, it’s possible that expectation is priced into Tesla’s shares after a gain of as much as 293% this year. A working paper posted by the National Bureau of Economic Research in July titled “ Does Joining the S&P 500 Index Hurt Firms?” found that stock pops linked to the announcement of index inclusion have gone away, and the lasting effect on price in recent years has been downward. Since Tesla reported its earnings, its shares have fallen6.6%. “Firms included in the index perform extremely well in the year before they are included in the index,” says René Stulz, a professor at Ohio State University and one of the paper’s authors. “Our results would also imply that getting into the index would not lead to another boost in Tesla’s stock price.” Read next: Investors Can’t Stop Dancing to the Bull Market’s Tune* Sent from my iPad

To: carranza2 who wrote (160761)	7/31/2020 11:18:07 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217791

Re <<Time to dump DRD?>> (1) Just upped stake in DRD by going long (14.92-14.89), call it at 14.90 Further upped stake by shorting equal number of puts, strike 12.50 expiration February, at 2.05 Reduced stake by shorting equal number of calls, strike 15 expiration February, at 2.90 Own this tranche at net cost 14.90 less (2.05 + 2.90), or 14.90 - 4.95 = 9.95 By 19th February or before I might have this tranche called away at 15 per share for a minuscule profit of 0.10 per share, and pocket the 4.95, making total haul 4.95+0.10, or 5.05 / 9.95 = 51%, not bad for ~7 months, ... alternatively ... On 19th February or between here and there (given that the options are not liquid) I might have equal share of DRD put to me at 12.50, taking my average cost of this tranche of DRD to [(14.90+12.50)/2 - 4.95)] = 13.70 - 4.95 = 8.75, and I am okay with that, knowing DRD shall eventually recover to above 8.75 when gold more clearly / sincerely heading to 2,300, or 3,200. I believe DRD gold bank cloud-ATM is a super mechanism that is not in counter to the FED or any other CB. OTOH it might be a trap because it seems too easy. (2) And yes, did my daily trade of KODK, popping them like vitamins. Am long KODK 28th August strike 65 costing 1.05, and short KODK 21st August strike 30 collecting premium 4.10, net 3.05 to pay for Vancouver airBnB lodging and cover food expenses. Had already done KODK & TSLA trades yesterday to defray burden of air tickets :0) KODK may again ramp, setting up for more of the same at better prices. KODK may tank, in which case I close out the matter and run. Classic special warfare and open-season on the Hooders, who of course in turn are insurrection fighters battling the institutions :0) Yes, understatement would be “I like the RobinHooders for they must be enthusiastically magnanimous and fanatically sincere - but they are for the greater good” (1) re DRD / KODK today (2) Re KODK / TSLA yesterday ...

To: carranza2 who wrote (160761)	8/6/2020 3:29:19 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217791

Revisiting the issue <<Time to dump>> Besides this Message 32861159 sort of gaming, which may be quite dangerous should gold crater 30%, stepping to the side is no crime But if stepping to the side, do not forget to get back in. You know more about the coming election than I do about DRD. What say you about gold? DRD is gold. Does the election have anything to impact gold?

To: carranza2 who wrote (160761)	8/6/2020 9:45:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217791

Call me a tin-foil hat type as labeled by my coconut, that if I have to guess, and I do, DRD shall close 21st August trading session a few cents above or below US$ 15 assuming gold not doing anything outrageous up or down On that day I have both shorted calls and shorted puts at strike 15, so in theory I can be both called and putted the shares, or nothing done. Would be very uncommon unless for shares under control ... queue tin-foil Am facing a situation where have shares valued at 15 (average cost cost not counting earlier premium profits booked, ~8.60), calls written expiration 21st august and valued 0.90 (average premium collected at 0.90), and puts written and valued 0.70 (premium originally collected 1.10), meaning the share shall net mark-to-market 2.00 premium turned into profit, plus profit if called (15 less 8.6) or average cost basis go up if putted. There is someone on the other side of the screen, and he doesn’t like to lose :0) finance.yahoo.com

To: carranza2 who wrote (160761)	10/28/2020 7:09:56 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217791

Did you <<dump>>? Given that gold dumped and DRD just shuffled, had you dumped earlier, perhaps time to consider un-dumping. One of the key challenges in S Africa is consistency of electricity supply, and tailing processing is everything about electricity supply. The vacuum pump powers the flow of tailings from the pond into the factory, and the factory's computer-controlled systems goes to work on the already fine powder that is tailings, which gets milled by use (literally) of the same sort of machinery that chocolate manufacturers use to mill for confectionary. The longer, finer, and more consistent the milled material, the more gold is recovered. Once milled, conveyor belt sends the whole lot into tanks loaded w/ cyanide and stir stir stir Then activated carbon (can be stuff as homey as burnt coconut shells) added, and eventually the tanks material is roasted by use of more power, until gold flows. Electricity must be consistent, available, and enough to power everything along the production circuit, else entire process stops. Now, imagine DRD do a workaround based on laws just promulgated allowing independent power generation by folks other than the inefficient national team, and better, if part of the equation (say, pumping, and roasting) is solar-weaponised, ie free electricity, what would that do to the cost, and even better, spare electricity can be sold, and carbon credits can be traded. businesslive.co.za DRDGold flies under the radar with megaproject Power prices and supply as well as costing will determine scope of second phase of Far West Gold Recoveries 28 October 2020 - 21:20 Allan Seccombe DRDGold is a rare company in SA in the prevailing economic environment. It is rapidly coming to a point where it will trigger a multihundred-million rand project. And it has the cash to do it. DRDGold is one of those low-key companies that gets things done without a lot of fuss and arm waving that attracts attention. It is effectively a listed subsidiary of Sibanye-Stillwater, the world’s largest supplier of platinum group metals.