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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (162175)	9/3/2020 12:47:10 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217620

Re <<TSLA>> On a beautiful night such as now, there is nothing to do except to short naked TSLA calls until happiness maximized, to pat oneself for catching the precise moment last night and this night. Operative word is sell-sell-sell, a noun, verb and adjective, pronoun, adverb, and a religion Wonderful thing, free money from the Fed, yesterday and today, and all through 2020 YTD But that is not all, for I did buy stuff yesterday w/ 5% of the premium collected, stuff called puts, on stuff known as GDX, GDXJ, and SLV :0) Acrobatics by way of on-line betting

To: carranza2 who wrote (162175)	9/3/2020 10:36:31 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217620

Well done C2. Did I earn a commission from you for providing investment advice albeit without my usual double your money back guarantee? I covered my Apple short right at the bottom. But went wrong on the $1011 TSLA short, in the short term anyway. Price heading down now and more in after hours. Youngsters getting lessons in how markets move. My doubled-up $2100 short is looking good though and ig was bigger than the $1011 short. 20 years since the big celebration of the birth of the mobile Cyberspace era and the cash flows show the Y2K predictions were on the money. Big companies start at $1 trillion now. 20 years ago $100 billion was a big company. Mqurice

To: carranza2 who wrote (162175)	9/4/2020 10:22:45 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217620

Re <<The TSLA bubble seems over>> ... Likely not. You probably should at least consider sending Son of Softbank a thank-you note for his work for the greater good. Elon + Masayoshi Son, what could be better? what can possibly go wrong? Given the information Message 32918203 , and how they are apparently playing the game, must carefully consider campaign strategy and battle tactics. Generally best to stay far out-of-the-money, in near-term-expirations, and in humongous-quantities Essentially using strategic artillery fire during house-to-house fighting, and with huge munitions for 24-7 no-let-up coverage. What the prima ballerinas are apparently altogether doing in the financial arena to metallic rock music is astounding, and one for the many pulitzer-prize books coming our way. No prisoners and for all the marbles. Am guessing their aggregate personality traits are close to that of typical socio-psychopath

To: carranza2 who wrote (162175)	9/5/2020 5:47:38 AM
From: TobagoJack	3 Recommendations Recommended By Cogito Ergo Sum Haim R. Branisteanu marcher Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217620

Sir Marty speaks his mind ask-socrates.com Blog So far so good. The target wee of August 31st appears to be shaping up as expected right down to the ideal day of September 3rd. We still see the market declining into October and a close today below 28039 level on the Dow will tend to confirm we should expect to see a further decline over the next two weeks. The major support basis the Dow will be 22750 and a monthly closing below that level would still warn that we may yet see new lows, but they could even extend into 2022. Our initial support will be found at 26600. That is the area that must hold on a monthly closing basis or we will see a further decline ahead. We are preparing the World Share Market Outlook given that COVID-19 has changed the course of markets and history.

To: carranza2 who wrote (162175)	9/8/2020 9:31:41 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217620

Re <<TSLA>> How does it feel to have fortunately missed a bullet? As the Jack says, “very satisfactory” In the meantime, knives out bloomberg.com The Tesla Hype Machine Is Looking Shaky A carmaker sustained by speculative buying is vulnerable to a sell-off. Chris Bryant September 8, 2020, 7:00 PM GMT+8 Blue steel. Photographer: FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP At last we have at least a partial explanation for why Tesla Inc.’s stock gained 500% this year: Massive bets on high-flying technology shares by SoftBank Group Corp. and others using equity derivatives. The extraordinary rise valued Elon Musk’s electric car business at $464 billion at the peak in late August, when only six U.S. companies were worth more. Unfortunately for Tesla’s devoted followers and the retail investors who’ve been giddily tallying up their winnings, the surge in the market value has very little to do with it selling more vehicles. Rather, it’s partly a tale of plain old financial speculation. If that feverish sentiment cools suddenly, it could leave the stock vulnerable to another sell-off. Tesla shares have tumbled 16% since the start of September, incinerating $75 billion of paper gains, and they fell about 15% in pre-market trading on Tuesday after the company wasn’t added to the S&P 500 index. The news that General Motors Co. has taken a $2 billion equity stake in Tesla rival Nikola Corp. won’t have helped. Not everyone accepts the argument that SoftBank’s huge derivatives bets have by themselves powered the epic run-up in technology stocks, including Tesla, as the Financial Times reported last week. But it’s certainly plausible that speculative purchases of call options — which give investors the right to buy a stock for specified price — by a much larger cohort of retail and other investors played a part in the rally. When brokers sell short-dated call options they often need to hedge their exposure by buying the underlying stock. You can see how a cycle of rising prices might then become self-perpetuating. Call-option buying has been buoyant lately and volumes in Tesla stock trading have been astounding — almost $65 billion of its shares changed hands on just one day in mid-July, according to Bloomberg data. Tesla’s recent five-for-one stock split seemed purpose-built to encourage more buying by making the nominal cost of the shares cheaper. The shares gained about 80% following the announcement in early August. Options Optimism Investors have used derivatives to profit from Tesla's surging stock Source: Bloomberg Tesla completed a stock split at the end of August The stock’s gains were much larger than most large tech companies’ (see chart below), and they also defied simple explanation. Unlike Amazon.com Inc., say, Tesla hasn’t derived a material benefit from the pandemic. On the contrary, its California car plant had to shut for a while. And while some investors see large-cap tech stocks like Alphabet Inc. — with their massive cash flows and entrenched market positions — as ports in a storm, Tesla doesn’t match that description either. Tesla vs FAANG The electric car company's stock market gains beat Big Tech in 2020 Source: Bloomberg Shows total return January to August 31 2020 If you strip out the benefit from selling regulatory pollution credits to rival manufacturers, Tesla’s car business remains loss-making and it’s facing mounting competition as the industry’s giants start mass-producing their own electric vehicles. In fairness, Tesla has built a compelling brand and the car’s features and automated driving functions get better the longer you own it. It has also improved its manufacturing. A new Shanghai plant was up and running in no time. Meanwhile, the $5 billion stock sale that Tesla announced last week will help pay for its spending plans, which include new factories in Germany and Texas, and provides a safety net in case of any financial mishaps. The company’s inflated valuation means issuing all those shares will barely dilute shareholders. While Tesla has shown repeatedly that it can raise massive sums of money, it’s yet to prove it can generate decent returns on that capital. The current $390 billion market capitalization — four times that of Volkswagen AG, the world’s largest carmaker — is still impossible to justify with any normal metric. Most analysts are bullish on large tech companies but they’re tepid on Tesla. The average price target implies the shares will fall more than 30%. Wall Street analysts have been consistently wrong this year, but even Musk thinks Tesla’s stock price is “too high”. His Twitter intervention came in May when the market capitalization was less than 40% of what it is now. Ideally, Tesla would gradually ease into its oversized valuation by delivering much higher revenues, earnings and cash flow in the coming years. However, speculative bubbles have a habit of deflating suddenly, particularly if there’s unexpected bad news. Tesla investors had been looking forward to its inclusion in the S&P 500, which was expected to trigger yet more buying of the stock by index-tracking funds. But Tesla is strangely absent from the new list. Back in the real world, it’s getting harder to ignore the onslaught of new rival electric cars hitting the market. That might explain why Tesla’s revenue growth has been so unimpressive lately. The competition is most evident in Europe, where tough regulation has forced incumbents to clean up their act. Tesla’s European sales and market share have declined this year, and that’s before the launch of several keenly priced electric SUVs from Volkswagen. The VW group will probably pass Tesla to become the world’s largest electric car maker in a couple of years. Rising Competition Tesla's electric vehicle sales have declined in Europe, as others surge Source: JATO Dynamics Tesla's decline is partly explained by Covid-related production difficulties. It doesn't compete directly with some of these brands. Musk is a master of sustaining hype, either by announcing new product categories such as the Cybertruck pick-up and the Semi heavy truck, or teasing new technologies like fully automated driving. And yet, the company’s current automated driving capabilities have received mixed reviews. Tesla’s battery-technology day later this month can probably be relied upon to deliver a required booster shot of investor excitement. But to sustain the nosebleed share price, Musk will need to be on top form. (This column was updated with news of GM’s stake in Nikola. ) This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. To contact the author of this story: Chris Bryant at cbryant32@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at jboxell@bloomberg.net Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE Sent from my iPad

To: carranza2 who wrote (162175)	9/8/2020 9:43:47 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217620

As I mentioned, knives out. At some juncture this night I might wind up some of my out-sized and enormous naked short call positions bloomberg.com Tesla Shares Slump After GM’s Nikola Stake, S&P Omission Kit Rees Tesla Inc. shares slumped in U.S. premarket trading Tuesday after the electric-vehicle maker missed out on being included in the S&P 500 Index, taking investors who had bet on its entry to the benchmark by surprise. Tesla shares fell 13% ahead of the first day of trading since Friday’s news. The declines worsened as General Motors Co. said it would take a $2 billion equity stake in Nikola Corp. and partner with the fledgling truck maker to engineer and manufacture its Badger pickup. The news lifted Nikola shares by 46% while GM rose 8%. Read More: GM Takes $2 Billion Stake in Nikola and Partners on Pickup Model Ahead of the S&P’s Friday announcement, Tesla’s price had largely reflected the assumed inclusion, said Baird analyst Ben Kallo, who called the decision “a relatively surprising development.” Instead of Elon Musk’s Tesla, S&P Dow Jones Indices added online retailer Etsy Inc., chip gear maker Teradyne Inc. and medical technology firm Catalent Inc. “We think shares were reflecting expectations for substantial passive inflows,” with an estimated $4.5 trillion of assets indexed to the S&P 500, Kallo wrote in a note Tuesday. “We think the stock could be under pressure following the delay of S&P 500 inclusion, particularly from investors who bought ahead of the announcement expecting an opportunity to sell to passive funds.” Kallo said he still expects Tesla will eventually be added to the benchmark, and the company’s “Battery Day” event planned for Sept. 22 could be a positive catalyst. Tesla’s failure to make it into the S&P 500 may be connected to “question marks about the sustainability of regulatory emission credit sales which are currently underpinning earnings,” said Michael Dean, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Tesla has soared 400% this year through Friday’s close, making it the second best performance in the Nasdaq 100 Index behind Zoom Video Communications Inc. The carmaker reported its fourth quarterly profit in a row in July and its much-hyped Battery Day may also have boosted optimism since many investors expect the company to unveil new technologies that day. The relentless rally has swelled the firm’s valuation, which now exceeds that of Toyota Motor Corp., General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles combined. Tesla shares entered correction territory last week, following news of the company’s largest shareholder after Musk cutting its stake, as well as the market slowly digesting Tesla’s plan to sell as much as $5 billion in shares. — With assistance by Kristine Owram (Updates share move, adds analyst comment in paragraphs 3-5) Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. LEARN MORE Sent from my iPad