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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w0z who wrote (10419)	10/11/2020 7:32:38 AM
From: w0z	1 Recommendation Recommended By Winfastorlose Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26439

I always like to look at past results of polls, models, etc. This is the 2016 election by predictit: And this is from a Stony Brook prof whose model has been successful in the past: Stony Brook Professor Predicts President Trump Landslide Win Not only did Norpoth correctly predict Trump's win over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but he has gotten right five of the past six presidential elections using his Primary Model; a statistical representation of U.S. presidential races based on data going back more than a century, according to a news release by the university. According to Norpoth, Trump has a 91 percent chance of winning re-election. The model also has Trump securing 362 electoral votes. His prediction runs contrary to most polls - similar to 2016. When applied to previous elections, the Primary Model was accurate 25 of 27 times; missing only Al Gore's defeat to George W. Bush and Richard Nixon's loss to John F. Kennedy.