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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (163657)10/13/2020 6:35:50 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217736
 
Following up on Message 32979142
For 20th November the DRD battle front seems to have shifted away from the strike-10 level to the strike-12.5 level
Today’s USA close at finance.yahoo.com



W/ the options at rich level for Friday 16th October expiration


IOW ‘they’ are willing to pay us 0.35 + 0.50 = 0.85 today for the joy of finding out whether we are to be put or called, or, as in the closing today, both or neither, at expiration mark

Once ‘they’ are done w/ October expiration then have to deal w/ my focus, the November expiration

Given the setup of gold-down, DRD option is biased to the same down.

As I am up / optimistic on DRD for all sorts of reasons and can always use free money, I have an idea for execution the coming trading session. I hope I can be stirred this night

I tried to setup just now w/ an outside trading hour buy order at 12.55 but no takers.

Re Trump win, it is true that it isn’t over until it is over.

The market seems to be pricing-in a Biden win, albeit NAK finance.yahoo.com is premised on Trump win, or a Biden sell-out

I am of two minds, so camping on hemp shares, NAK position, and counting on gold.



To: carranza2 who wrote (163657)10/14/2020 6:07:04 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217736
 
ask-socrates.com

BlogEarlier today we heard words of warning from the IMF concerning global stock markets. Tobias Adrian, Director of Monetary and Capital Markets Division, wrote that without continued coronavirus support packages, we could expect plunging equity markets as the punchbowl is removed.

However, worth mentioning that this view has been circulating in many research notes since equity markets showed a direct correlation to these packages earlier in the year. As many European countries reimpose localized lockdowns and economic data fails to manage optimism, the realization starts to dawn on European investors that things may be less than rosy.



Given this limp recovery in the core, it is only the DAX that has managed a historic close earlier in Q1 this year. When we compare this to the French CAC or FTSE it is concerning that the FTSE set it high back in 2018 whilst the CAC saw it twenty years ago.



Above is the chart of BNP Paribas; probably the safest and most innovative core bank in Europe. As a point of disclose – I was a former employee but closed all ties as part of my severance in 2003.

What I find concerning is the mismatch between index highs and the core banks' performance. When we map this stock against the CAC there is a minor mismatch of around two years (BNP to CAC). However, what I find more concerning is the mismatch between CAC and DAX, but even more surprisingly the gap between BNP Paribas share price and the DAX, both in performance and in time.

There are many variables from financials, single stock, sovereign, capital flow to core, and then corporate to debt, but given currencies are aligned that reduces calculation. Ahead of the Euro many squeezed government debt spreads to core and derivatives were in their heyday. I question now are we witnessing the same today with the DAX and the Euro’s performance mimicking the peripheral to core spread.

Many Europeans commented on how expensive things had become following the launch of the Euro. We have to question now, could we be hearing these same questions with the launch a digital euro!

One school of thought is that the money is hiding in the core and that is the reason for the performance of the DAX. At least there are returns being paid which is a huge benefit when compared to the negative yields on offer for Bunds. Others may cheer the proactive response of the government whilst dealing with the virus.

Whatever the reason, whether we see the digital introduction sooner rather than later, it does appear that wherever capital is hiding Europeans are still losing ground on the world stage as the flow of capital chases US stocks to even greater heights.



To: carranza2 who wrote (163657)10/14/2020 8:06:09 AM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
3bar

  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 217736
 
A few items to consider, clip & posted from a 140+ page report







































































... etc etc continued, on and on



To: carranza2 who wrote (163657)10/14/2020 8:06:13 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217736
 
... and on ... (spoiler alert) and the last chart is the punch line, that which says we might want to consider running for our lives, or take the dark plunge at the starting gun and go massively short