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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (163684)	10/14/2020 8:17:22 AM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217712

Very, very interesting. Thank you very much. Not going to end well.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (163684)	10/14/2020 8:54:59 PM
From: stsimon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217712

Bummer.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (163684)	10/18/2020 5:55:18 PM
From: sense	Respond to of 217712

Re-focusing on yours re economics and investment: A few comments on the links provided... like the one to which this replies. I was short the market via SQQQ going into the first of September... got out of it within the week... just because it didn't feel right. There wasn't the "rush" there was in March... even while the sentiment was even worse than it was in March. Rule #1 is still "don't fight the Fed"... and even when the market participants are grousing about having to toe that line... no one wants to be short when the Fed opts to go long in that exact same trade, betting against you. Of course, that didn't used to happen, ever. The Fed used to be more like a trained seal that focused hard just to manage that one giant beach ball. Now... the Fed is just another market participant... albeit the only gorilla in the room that is capable of both writing and cashing blank checks. Even while opting out of the trade myself based on the "feel"... even before there was a rational explanation to be leaned on... I'd not take that choice as a "vote of confidence in the market"... ? The banks are the key... I agree. Might have a different take on "how" and "why" however. One way to look at it... is that the "new banks"... are those few corporations mentioned that are generating so much cash in the current environment that they are in no way dependent on the banks for their survival, or, really, even for services needed to sustain themselves as a going concern. Apple is a bank ? Even if it is over-priced at 30 times earnings in this market... it does have almost as much cash $93B on hand as it has in its $122B debt ? But, JP Morgan fairly valued at 12 times earnings has $634B in debt... versus $1.31T in cash ? So... unless there's other things that matter a lot that are not being mentioned... that looks like it earns a giant bullshit flag. AAPL $93B cash, $122B debt, $2T market cap JPM $1.31T cash, $634B debt, $309B market cap MSFT $136B cash, $69B debt, $1.66T market cap GOOG $121B cash, $16B debt, $1T market cap FB $58B cash, $11B debt, $757B market cap Suggests either that JPM should buy FB for cash, then liquidate the rest of its business and issue shareholders a massive cash dividend... or that, maybe, something else is askew in the valuations ? Obviously... I think... since it is the banks, now, that are the buyers of last resort propping up the market valuations ? When push comes to shove... as it must in any 1929 type scenario... still probably better to own a business that can print money, literally, instead of one that has to earn it ? In gold, however, "don't fight the Fed" takes on an entirely different meaning ? Gold is just permanently resident on the opposite side of the ledger page than are all the other businesses... even if the shares of some miners are made into problems... as when they sell themselves to the banks, in debt, instead of building value in equity. At roughly 12, 14 and 21 times forward earnings... risking these vs debt seems like fairly simple math, to me: KL $537M cash, $28M debt, $14B market cap NEM $4B cash, $7B debt, $50B market cap GOLD $4B cash, $5B debt, $49B market cap With debt being hard, cash being fleeting, and market caps being ephemeral... only one of those companies above appears it doesn't' need to worry much about the opinions of or the difficulties encountered by banks.