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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (13503)	1/29/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Cymeed	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 25960

What a night ! It took me 4 hours to chew this "10~15%" Q1_98 revenue decrease, given the fact that the A-team asked to leave the prediction of laser sales to the "experts" and "sequential revenue growth" was expected for the next two quarters. After all, it seems to me Fleckstein knew more than Akins ! And the "experts" were wrong. Shame on you, Akins. Hope you have learned your lesson. And shame on fools like me too. I should not have blindly believed the CEO. The market knows more than the company CEO ! Lessons being learned ? Indeed. Akins seems going toward the other extreme this time. His Q1_98 revenue drop of 10%~15% is too conservative this time, in my view. I am betting the drop will be no more than 10%. I say this because, 1). Q4 revenue at $59 with Sept. 31 backlog at $117, which meant 50% of backlog was realized. If Cymer receives 50% of the current $108 backlog during next quarter, he should have $54 in Q1_98 revenue, which is only 9.2% drop. 2). The jump in receivables seems to me they have sold a few more bulbs than they have claimed for Q4_97. They may be "allocating" something for late days. Going foward, surprises may be possible for Q1. Still worried or disappointed ? You bet, they essentially forcasted further decline of margins in Q1_98 and beyond when they said $0.15 per share less next quarter. The revenue drop won't explain it all. It must be the expenses ! Q4_97 marging has been lower than what I personally expected, in spite of the low tax rate (25%). And capital spending alone won't explain either because capital is depreciated over mulriple years, not expensed in a single quarter. This margin thing is the real bad news in the report, no wonder an aggressive buy back program which I like too at this point of time. Let's see what the analysts are going to say tomorrow or in the next few days. They won't downgrade those "Hold" to "sell" like Adams Harkness ???? Hope they will say something at least, good or bad or reiterate what they said before. I would hate silence. The key to this stock now is what will happen after April 1, 98 - the fool's day. Anybody has a crystal ball that can see that far ? Good luck to all ! BTW, Congratulations to Bob and Zeev for your earnings estimate right on target and congratulations to Curly. Curly, you shouted loud enough, even the deaf Akins heard of you. Wish he had heard of other people saying the wolf was coming, though, and stayed away from those unprecendented "Sequential growth", "expert-like" estimate.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (13503)	1/29/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: John Bloxom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Great post, Baird. Management did a terrific job here. Announcing the R&D charges with the Asia problem now, at a time when the stock is already down deep but on good support (with support being augmented now by the buy-back), is very savvy. No one already sick objects much to taking medicine, as they say. With the damage in 1QF99, if the fundamentals hold, the comparisons from 2QF99 forward should be screamers. And I was very impressed by the commitment to lengthening the technological lead that the company has. So many companies get so lazy so fast. It's hard to believe that this is the same crew that did that convertible deal back in August with the strike price at the market. They seem to have come a long way real, real fast. I'm impressed. The only advice I'd presume to give mgt. now (if mgt. is following this thread, as has been reported) is that before the company goes to the capital markets again, pppllleeeeaaassseee hire a big, super-expensive, top-drawyer, silk-stocking NYC Wall Street law firm to run the offering. Those guys, with whom I have worked, light years smarter than me, a mere country lawyer, would have caught that strike price problem, and we'd be having this conversation at $25 p/s instead of $15. Regards, John