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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (53328)	11/1/2020 12:26:58 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69747

It was in a significant call as it placed a timeframe on the ramp of 5G also. If the peak in test equipment is in 2023. The peak, steady state production of 5G chips is in 2024 or 2025 as all the fabs that need equipment will have their test equipment by then by their estimation. Demand will be more muted and incremental from then on. That would correspond to a normal 7 year product cycle with 2027 as the taper off target with a steady state demand afterwards.. By then the ramp due to new adopters of the 5G handsets and other 5G related products will be over and a lower but more consistent level of demand will be in place till the next big thing comes around. So this sets a timeframe for the demand ramp of 5G related products for AAPL, Samsung, QCOM and indirectly on the wide wired pipe/fibre optiocal side as all that data has to eventually be transferred over a physical connection so CSCO and CIEN. Even further down the line are telecom construction companies like MTZ and DY. Keep in mind this is only one data point but I have not seen guidance from other companies yet and this would match up with traditional tech cycles which usually last 7 years with peak demand at year 3.5. How good has COHU been at identifying and taking advantage of the next wave of technology to drive demand? Most companies are usually not great and being in test equipment the barriers are low to competitors but the cost per unit is high so good money can be made while they are riding the next big wave before the trough.