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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (32653)	1/30/1998 3:49:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Just prove your statement saying CSCO is making great strides in RAS, aside from the Q3 anomaly. I'll pull this data together in the next hour or so. Give me some time for lunch and a bit of research. ;-) Gary

To: Sector Investor who wrote (32653)	1/30/1998 5:04:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 61433

O.K. Sector. Here's my first entry. I'm still trying to get more data but this I think is a good start. This data comes direct from IDC (International Data Corp.) Fixed Port Remote Access Server Market: This market segment is flat generating about $800M in annual revenues. However it appears there is now some migration to the RAS Concentrators since during the first half of 97 only $320M in revenues were generated. (Yes, these revenue figures are worldwide.) ALL DATA IS UNIT SHIPMENTS UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED: ____________1996________1H 97 COMS/USR____ 7%__________11% ASND________ 4%__________9% BAY_________13%__________8% CSCO________24%__________23% Digital_____13%__________17% Cisco is #1 in this segment and has maintained their position. ASND has made some gains but remember this market is flat to declining. At $850M in 1996 and $320 for 1H97 it looks like a -24% growth rate. So, I guess losing market share in a declining/migrating market is kind of a so-what. So, what about the RAS Concentrator Market? Let's look! The RAS Concentrator market was a $2.8B market in 1996 and generated $1.2B in the first 6 months of 1997. It's a growth market...growing at 26% over this period. ____________1996________1H 97 COMS/USR____30%_________30% ASND________33%_________29% BAY_________ 4%_________3% CSCO________13%_________20% Digital_____---_________--- !!!! Who's gaining market share? In the growth market Cisco is making all the gains - not ASND. Also from what I'm told COMS and CSCO are 1 and 2 now! I'm looking for this data and will post it as soon as I find it because even I find that surprising. So....total RAS business: ____________1996________1H 97 COMS/USR____11%_________17% ASND________ 9%_________16% BAY_________11%_________6% CSCO________22%_________22% Digital_____11%_________12% According to IDC Cisco is the market leader in total RAS with COMS/USR at #2. ASND has made gains but not at Cisco's expense....mostly Shiva I think. FOR THOSE OF YOU INTERESTED IN REVENUES: TOTAL RAS REVENUE MARKET SHARE: ____________1996_______1H 97 COMS/USR____28%_________32% ASND________29%_________27% BAY_________ 4%_________3% CSCO________13%_________14% Digital_____ 3%_________3% ASND again is losing market share...not gaining. I know we all expect this to turn around with the MAX TNT. We shall see. I'll keep watch and report back when I get new data. I should point out that Cisco market share relative to revenue is lower that in units because Cisco sells a large percentage of their platforms to the private sector where price points are lower and port counts are lower. So, although Cisco sold more platforms than Ascend they did sell fewer ports and therefore generated lower revenues for this market. IN closing. ASND (based on my earlier post about the ATM and Frame Relay market) is NOT beating CSCO/STRM and now, as you can see, ASND is not taking it to CSCO in the RAS market either.. In fact, one could argue the opposite in both markets. Gary (not Korn)