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To: Robert K. Sims who wrote (4210)	1/31/1998 4:57:00 AM
From: tech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10786

Robert, RE: Fundamental Analysis of 9 months results and potential FYE 1997 numbers. These are the results for the 9 months, Q1 to Q3, ended Sep. 30, 1997 Link: sec.gov Nine Months Ended 9/30/97 ========================================= Revenues $ 4,566,839 Operating Expenses ------------------ Payroll and related costs $9,369,319 Depreciation & amortization 455,329 Other operating expenses 2,403,611 Total Operating Expenses $12,228,269 -------------------------------------------- =========================================== ALYD's total revenues Q1 to Q3 of 1997 were approx. $4.5 million As we can see, ALYD's avg. expenses for the 9 months, (Q1 to Q3 of 1997) have been approx. $1,358,696 per month. [ $12,228,269 / 9 months] Basically, ALYD's expenses are approx. $4 million per Q .... however, this is an approx. avg. for the past three Q's. If more employees are added this number will increase. If we say that ALYD maintained their burn rate through Q4 of 1997, then their total expenses FYE 1997 should be around $16 million Now to what Gruder stated in the Charlotte Business Journal. exchange2000.com ""As a public company, we have to keep this thing going," Gruder says. "We've already targeted a handful of companies (to acquire)." Alydaar, which is traded on Nasdaq, is now turning a profit after losing money last year on $11 million in sales. I think that you would agree that what is material here, is the mention of $11 million in sales. If this $11 million figure is a true estimate of FYE 1997 revenues, then the rest is easy to figure out... This means that for Q4 of 1997 ALYD brought in approx. $6.5 million in revenues. [ ($11 million in revenues FYE 1997 ) - ($4.5 million in revenue for Q1 to Q3 of 1997] = $6.5 million in revenues for Q4 of 1997 For the year (FYE 1997) ALYD would of lost approx. ($-4 million ) [ (est. $11 million in revenues) - (est. $16 million in expenses FYE 1997 ) ] = (-$4 million) ========== notes* ========== ALYD est. that they should have between $6 to $8 million in revenues in Q4 and they would of come in at the lower end of that estimate. ( ~$6.5 million) ALYD's Q4 will show a profit of approx. $2.5 million (depending if expenses for the Q were held at the $4 million figure) If the numbers in the article are true, then ALYD will not break-even in 1997. and show a net loss of approx. ($-4 million) FYE 1997 [ As of November 12, 1997, there were 17,255,576 shares of Alydaar outstanding. ] The above is based solely for discussion purposes only. The numbers and figures mentioned could vary depending on ALYD's net expenses in Q4 of 1997 and the validity of the $11 million revenue figure mentioned in the Feb. 2nd Charlotte Business Journal. : : : btw- I have a huge problem with ALYD and Bob Gruder mentioning revenue figures in the Charlotte Business Journal, prior to an official press release. I will address this in point in another post.