fun watch folks coming to the realisation that they ought to be in, so as to be in, in case being out is bad
some of the e-mail thread participants are in the three-comma category
buy buy buy, conclusion, only open issue being how much
On 3 Dec 2020, at 4:08 PM, W wrote:
Love the analogy R - wouldn’t have worked for me mind you...
Sent from my iPhone
On 3 Dec 2020, at 4:02 PM, r wrote:
Many thanks for your thoughts, gentlemen!
Very interesting, sometimes heated discussion btw people in the gold and BTC camp going on at the moment...those 2 currencies are'nt opponents, they are cousins...the enemy that you want to protect you from is FIAT money...still, when i'm advocating buying BTC, people treat me like i was cheating on my wife with my mother in law .-)
I have attached a quick correlation chart that i prepared. Basically a non-correlation btw both assets, which makes it even more interesting for me. Also the reason why we combine 75% XAU with 25% BTC in our new fund and use the volatility
The question (whether the young will buy more BTC instead of gold in the future) is justified, but a classic case where a current market movement or market sentiment (BTC up, gold down) is to be justified by an ultralong term, structural phenomenon. I think here we can refer to Dan Tapiero ITV, who is very pragmatic about both assets and says that FIRST the really big instis have to go into gold slowly, and are still many years away from a BTC investment. youtube.com
It has always been my opinion that the marginal buyer of gold is the (US) institutional investor, for gold it doesn't matter if you buy a few millenials more BTC or not. Bitcoin is a product that comes from a very narrow circle of retail and tech-savy kids and is slowly making its way into the corporate sector. If it reaches the institutional financial market like it seems to be starting now, 20K will probably still be a bargain. You have to keep in mind the ratio of the two market sizes, the gold market doesn't care if a few potential purchases might buy BTC. On the other hand, it is probably already noticeable.
Just my 2cents (or 2 satoshis .-))
Am Do., 3. Dez. 2020 um 08:29 Uhr schrieb W:
Distrust in government is universal and millennia-old P. All fully justified.
Gold was assayed by specialists in order to keep government coinage issuance in check and Bitcoin is a money that governments have no power to debase. What’s not to like about that?
From: P
Sent: 03 December 2020 15:14
To: W
Subject: Re: Thanks R -- well worth the read. Question 4 U
Interesting in how trust in being placed in bitcoin.
Is it because so many people distrust the government ? Or we just know what is coming.
Regardless it seems BTC is filling a very real need of society !
And i am sure that there will be further debasement of all currencies as governments must somehow cover their debts
I am planning to buy bitcoin shortly. As an btc virgin. What is best way to go about it ?
P
On Dec 3, 2020, at 8:00 AM, W wrote:
I’m with K - although I think BTCs market cap will become much bigger, especially if it goes to 16 decimal place divisibility.
From: K
Sent: 03 December 2020 14:05
To: T
Subject: Re: Thanks R -- well worth the read. Question 4 U
As an owner of both Au and BTC my comment is BTC has two clear advantages. First and most important CBs do not hold it as a reserve and therefore cannot manipulate it. It is difficult to sell something you do not own or hold for others. Impossible to borrow in size so cannot short sell it.
Secondly BTC is only a 500B MC crypto despite being leader in the space. Despite comments from Yellen and others there is no reason for CBs and governments to view such a small player as a threat. AAPL alone has a MC of 2T.Gold 9T.Cryptocurrencies the future of the financial economy just as the internet became the future of the real economy.
I own both but I expect BTC to outperform Au.
Sent from my iPhone
On 3 Dec 2020, at 01:37, T wrote:
I would ask for maybe a future publication:
1. Does it make sense to look at Bitcoin and buyer behavior. Does it drain demand of gold and silver in below 30 years old crowd? ... outlook? Will it have more of an impact down the road, despite testing issues? Impact of government regulation?
2. Could you run a correlation chart for bitcoin or various bitcoin currencies on gold correlations in terms of movement of the two series. Would that be interesting? (Even if just 5 yrs)
Thanks again
On Wed, Dec 2, 2020, 1:17 AM r wrote:
Good morning from Vienna!
I hope that you are all well!
The extraordinary events of 2020 have motivated us to write an In Gold We Trust special on the heightened risk of rising inflation rates. We chose the classic children’s fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", by Æsop as the leitmotif of this report.
The main topics of this In Gold We Trust special are:
-How and why politicians have taken over credit creation
- Why Vaccinations will lead to an increase of the Velocity of Money
- Average Inflation Targeting
- Unprecedented Growth of the Broad Monetary Aggregates
- The Rise of "People’s" Policies (MMT, Helicopter Money)
- How to Prepare Your Portfolio for Inflation
Enclosed please find the ENG version!
Enjoy! All the best, R
Am Mi., 2. Dez. 2020 um 05:01 Uhr schrieb B:
This is a link to Dalios latest, I am part way through it, and it looks worthwhile:
linkedin.com
On Tue, Dec 1, 2020 at 8:19 PM T wrote:
I don't claim Latam.
israel is a mess. has been for 2000puls years. kingdom of Heaven was a nice Romanticization.
Troy was not Greek either.
Bachtria was not Persian.
Tibet is not Chinese.
Mongols were not Han.
but in future we will be far fewer country areas even if Texas is independent for awhile.
On Tue, Dec 1, 2020, 19:48 J wrote:
125 years?
So what?
You giving up on Israel or the New World?
On 2 Dec 2020, at 10:46 AM, T wrote:
"Let us take back Taiwan. Or else..."
Problem of course is Taiwan has been away for 125 years and has changed. But for sure Chairman Xi has lots of plans.
On Tue, Dec 1, 2020, 16:22 J wrote:
Between the just promulgated National Security Laws & Regs to do w/ anti-sanctioning / export control, and the so far successful testing of digital RMB w/ staged rollout to full rollout 2022, it should be easy to require that all rare earths export be denominated in Digital Yuan, and further requiring that all onward sales of embedded rare earth be likewise denominated in proportional / pro rata Digital Yuan, better for tracking to ensure national security and to select-sanction outfits be they intermediaries or final users.
In the meantime China-China-China export of REEs down and import of REEs up. ’They’ are up to something. Let’s watch. To see whether and if REE found and brought back from the moon, to short circuit the stuff from the deep ocean.
In the meantime, suggest offloading Macau stuffing and not buy into any covid-casino recovery plays, except those that adopt the "hive-mind-supported-network-effect-enabled-anti-fragile-electric-neo-paradigm-digital-gold-asset-class" (HiMiSuNeeAfenPaDiGoAC, or just bitcoin) as transact-able currency
Interesting that Team China made illegal the crypto exchanges but still tolerates bitcoin mining. It might be the case that 0388.HK shall allow trading of Bitcoin, and when so, ToeTwawKi happens.
bloomberg.com
China’s Digital Currency Could Reshape Macau’s Gambling IndustryMacau saw revenue plummet by $27 billion this year as pandemic travel curbs kept lucrative Chinese gamblers away. While visitors are slowly returning, a potentially bigger threat is unnerving operators in the world’s biggest casino hub: the prospect China’s central bank-backed cryptocurrency, the digital yuan, will be introduced to the enclave.
Though no formal plans have been announced, some junkets -- businesses that act as middlemen for Chinese high rollers who make up half the city’s gambling revenue -- are exiting the industry or shifting resources elsewhere. They’re saying that the imposition of a traceable, government-linked currency will be the death knell for an industry already hobbled by the virus’s impact and stricter rules around high-stakes gambling over the past few years.
A number of casino operators say they have been approached by Macau’s regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, over the past few months to discuss the feasibility of using digital yuan to buy casino chips, which are currently denominated in Hong Kong dollars, according to people familiar with the matter.
Discussions are still at an initial stage and there’s been no final decision on whether to proceed, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak publicly about the discussions.
While it appears that no change is imminent, the suggestion alone has sent shock waves through the territory, especially in the uniquely Macau industry of junkets. These companies arrange private jets and hotel stays, but their key role is to provide credit to Chinese gamblers for betting in Macau’s casinos.
Greater VisibilityIntroducing the digital yuan as a form of currency in Macau’s casinos would mean that high-roller Chinese gamblers no longer need to convert their yuan into Hong Kong dollars to bet big, reducing the junkets’ role as providers of credit.
It would also give Beijing -- which bans gambling on the mainland -- greater visibility over cash flows through Macau’s casino halls, potentially scaring away high rollers from using the junket system, which has been linked in the past to money laundering.
Junket operators, from small-time outfits to major companies with billions in revenue, are assessing their options on concern the plan will be followed through. With gaming revenue down at least 90% for six straight months since March due to pandemic-related travel curbs, junkets are already under significant financial stress.
Suncity Group Holdings Ltd., the listed arm of Macau’s biggest junket operator, raised its stake in a Russian casino and inked a deal for a new casino project in Manila in recent months. These moves are aimed at accelerating its expansion outside of Macau in anticipation of new rules like the potential shift to the digital yuan, said a person familiar with the matter.
A company representative for Suncity declined to comment. Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Giving UpSome smaller players have already given up entirely. Eric Leong, who’s been offering junket services to Chinese bettors for decades, this year pivoted to becoming an importer of consumer goods like cosmetics and luxury bags.
“Everyone in this industry is trying to survive however they can,” he said. “If the water is too clean, there’ll be no fish. The big gamblers will go away if casinos need to be that transparent,” he said, referring to the digital yuan prospect.
While the digital yuan is yet to be rolled out for public usage in mainland China, introducing it in Macau would achieve two of Beijing’s policy objectives at once.
First, it would cut off the shadow banking and money laundering activity that threatens the government’s control of its currency, contributing to outflows. Authorities in Macau have cracked down on such activity in recent years, installing facial recognition technology at Macau’s ATMs and banning proxy betting and underground banks.
‘Significant Hit’It would also be the most ambitious expansion of its digital yuan yet, which some investors expect could become a tool to challenge the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the international financial system and gain greater control of its $27 trillion domestic payments industry.
How China Is Closing In on Its Own Digital Currency: QuickTake
For Macau’s casinos and gaming promoters, the immediate blow would be substantial. High rollers, which account for $17 billion of gaming revenue annually, would likely decamp to other, less-regulated gaming locations like the Philippines and Cambodia, while even small-time punters could be put off by the potential surveillance.
“If applied widely, the digital yuan will bring a significant hit to both VIP and mass segments,” said Zhou Jinquan, associate professor at the Centre for Gaming and Tourism Studies in Macau Polytechnic Institute. “It’ll breach customer privacy and restrict people’s betting amount to the potential conversion cap imposed on the digital yuan to foreign currencies.”
Leisure BoostStill, the move could help make Macau more attractive to middle-class Chinese tourists in the longer term. The enclave has been trying to attract these leisure visitors in bigger numbers by re-positioning itself as a recreational hub with theme park and concert offerings beyond low-lit baccarat rooms.
In China, where adoption of digital payment platforms like Ant Group Co.’s Alipay and Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s WeChat Pay is near universal, the convenience of using digital yuan -- also known as e-RMB -- would appeal to consumers who must currently carry cash or bring credit cards, which are not common in mainland China, to Macau casinos, said the people.
Some analysts say the potential e-RMB launch could ultimately be a good thing for Macau, which is six times the size of Las Vegas, but where growth had been slowing even before the pandemic due to the tightening of rules to prevent money-laundering, as well as rising competition from gaming locations online and in Southeast Asia.
Even after the border with mainland China re-opened in September, Macau’s recovery has been slow due to the longer-than-usual visa-issuance process and the requirement that all travelers be tested for the virus.
Macau ‘Quandary’“The Macau gaming industry is in a bit of a quandary at the moment and for the foreseeable future. We don’t see any hopes of recovering to 2019 levels without a drastic change in the underlying drivers,” said Ben Lee, a Macau-based managing partner at consultancy IGamiX.
“One such possibility is the replacement of the Hong Kong dollar with the RMB and e-RMB, which would incorporate Macau into a single currency jurisdiction with the mainland that finally opens up Macau’s domestic market,” he said.
The first cryptocurrency in the world to be issued by a central bank, the digital yuan is now being trialed internally by state-owned banks and companies like Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing Inc. and food delivery app Meituan. The People’s Bank of China has not published a timeline or plan for rolling out full public usage.
Official documents suggest that consumers and businesses would download a digital wallet on their mobile devices and load the token linked to their accounts at a commercial bank -- similar to going to an ATM.
The e-RMB could challenge Ant and Tencent for a share of China’s $27 trillion payments industry. These providers are just processing claims on a bank account much like a debit or credit card, but the state token would help Chinese regulators maintain a better grasp of the country’s money supply.
China’s regulatory cross-hairs are already trained on Ant, whose $35 billion initial public offering was suspended abruptly on Nov. 3 by the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges after new financial control rules.
Authorities are only considering allowing the digital yuan inside Macau’s casinos, said the people. Digital payment platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay aren’t included in the plan as they won’t help the Chinese government track capital flows, they said.
— With assistance by Chanyaporn Chanjaroen, Daniela Wei, Jinshan Hong, and Christopher Palmeri
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