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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (10740)	12/21/2020 4:03:33 PM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26768

Twenty years ago, as I recall, it was all about the Book-to-Bill ratio. I haven't seen that ratio in years. Bookings give you a heads up about what is coming. No?

To: Kirk © who wrote (10740)	12/21/2020 9:44:30 PM
From: robert b furman	2 Recommendations Recommended By John Carragher Return to Sender Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26768

HI Kirk, Well if I had a lot of money in TSLA, I'd be waiting with baited breath for their registration numbers. If they are to make the ICE obsolete in 15 to 20 years, they'd better start gaining market share. Remember when the dot.com collapsed it was all about double orders and a collapse of end user demand and it seemed like it all happened in 30 days. Back then , although a new concept to learn about, AMAT KLAC LRCXCSCO MSFT MUand INTC were making big bucks. a feat yet to really be accomplished by TSLA. So I don't blame those who have money invested in a very high valuation stock like TSLA to be watching closely. TSLA is more than rich when their capitalization exceeds the big three of their competitors. It baffles me - to be sure. Marginal profitability with basically no competition is a scary formula for EV dominance. If and when TSLA loses market share as the result of market share losses from competitors, there is a WHOLE lot of air in the balloon. As you know when a heavily weighted component begins to implode, it will force the sale of many other shares that one does not want to sell, but gets sold because it is the only thing not in freefall. ETF's more or less gave us that taste in mid March of this year. Wonder how much selling had to be done for the index funds to buy TSLA in the appropriate mix of the new S&P? It was big and look like it got handled fairly well. It never ends pretty, and valuations are lofty and semi's are getting a bit euphoric (in my mind). Distribution takes time, and with short selling being quietly accomplished, it always comes as a surprise. I still think it is early, but beginning to show some characteristics. With large stock positions it takes time to sell. An S&P position has very good liquidity, not so for some smaller cap stock shares. It's always best to be out early and leave the last many points for the speculators. IMO Bob