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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brad Rogers who wrote (1361)	2/11/1998 1:48:00 AM
From: Todd D. Wiener	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3813

NVLS, AMAT and many other chip-equips will likely go down tomorrow. AMAT's 1998 outlook is bleak. That means the entire front-end sector is likely to have problems. This is nothing new, except that AMAT expects the growth (over 1997) to be non-existent for most of 1998. Previously, we had thought that the last several months of 1998 would witness a rapid recovery in equipment sales. It is still possible that this will occur, due to the necessity of technology upgrades and transitions by chipmakers. However, the Korean and Japanese problems will dampen any recovery. We can be saved by heavy spending by European and American chipmakers. I think it's a good possibility that the equipment stocks will revisit their recent lows before moving to new highs. Even so, the stocks will be much higher in a year, so I recommend buying heavily near these stocks' recent lows, and building positions in leading chip-equip companies. There were some good opportunities in NVLS Feb $40 and $35 puts today. I hope some of you were able to hedge your long positions. Good luck to all. Todd