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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARAKIS: HIGH RISK OIL PLAY (AKSEF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edward M. Zettlemoyer who wrote (7693)	2/1/1998 6:48:00 AM
From: J. M. Burr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9164

EMZ: There were recent claims that EO was training Riak Machar's NUER to protect the fields. EO is, however, a very expensive proposition, about 100K/man/year. An American outfit, also rumored to be interested in Sudan, can be hired more cheaply. It seems that the SPLA claims of victory at Wau were premature. That is very sad, because the sooner this war is done, the sooner someone finally makes a profit on oil in Sudan. 1998 marks the 20th anniversary of Chevron's first strike at Heglig. It marks 15 years of continuous civil war. The war in Chad (1984-1990) proved just how effective a "Toyota Chariot" can be in disrupting a static defense. A pick-up, manned by three men, with machine gun and RPG can be used with devastating effectiveness. Thus, it doesn't matter if the pipeline is 20 or 100 miles from the border with Ethiopia and Eritrea, the pipeline will always be subjct to attack. I am surprised that AKSEF investors do not understand that both Eritrea and Ethiopia are presently enemies of the Khartoum government. Khartoum has continually tried to destabilie those countries as it has supported various Islamic rebel groups. As long as that condition lasts the pipeline will never be safe. And that is why I have said, pray for peace, brother. The SPLA has a tendency to be premature in victory, but as usual its reports from Nairobi are honest. Thus, it looks like another scare was thrown into the NIF-Govrnment at Khartoum but a light at the end of the tunnel must wait for another time. For every ARAKIS investor I hope that is soon. Which reminds me, if someone knows who made that very large block purchase a few days back, that should provide some indication on the direction of the stock in the next few monts. Tumbleweed.

To: Edward M. Zettlemoyer who wrote (7693)	2/1/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 9164

Ed, I stay in reasonably close touch with affairs in the Sudan. I have not heard of their participation in the civil war, but then again EO would not be broadcasting their presence to be sure. However I will raise that question shortly with some loca sources there and see what they say.... BTW I'd bet better than 50-50 now that the Arakis Concession would survive the war intact regardless of the outcome for a whole number of geopolitical reasons.... Sincerely, Doug F.